This Thursday morning, at 5:30 AM Pacific Time, all of Hollywood will be waking up to hear who the Academy has nominated for this year's Oscars, and Thursday morning is ready to offer us one amazing lineup in all the categories, solidifying this year's race as one of the best in history. Throughout the past month or so, I've been following the trends and tendencies that have been developing in the race, and I'm finally ready to unveil whose name I think will be called this Thursday. Like every year, the announcement will probably bring a surprise or two that I didn't see coming, but I'm cool with that, because some of their surprises are just awesome. Here's my predictions.
Best Picture
Anywhere from five to ten films can be in this field, and this year offers so many worthy contenders that I believe that the field will max out with ten films. It would just be a little disgraceful if less than ten were nominated. Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty are definitely in the field, as has been the case for quite some time now. The question is, and has been for just as long, who will join those six. Six additional films have strong resumes to fill the four remaining spots, and that's the only reason that I would hesitate to put ten movies in the field. I fear that the voting will be too split between those six films and, as a result, we get a simple six or seven total nominations. However, I don't forsee that occuring. This Best Picture race is one of the best in the history of the Oscars, with, in my opinion, four films have a legitimate shot at getting the top prize.
Prediction:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Watch Out For: Skyfall, The Master
Best Director
Now, imagine for a moment that the Best Picture race could only have five nominees period, no execptions. That's essentially what is taking place with the Best Director field. All the directors in the running directed films currently in the Best Picture race. Therefore, you're basically nominating your top five films in the Best Picture race with this category. Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and Steven Spielberg are locked into the field, with one of those three bringing home the award. The remaining two spots will belong to two of seven worthy directors. It's essentially a coin toss at the moment with no one really knowing the outcome until Thursday morning. The Director's Guild Awards nominated Ang Lee for his work with Life of Pi and Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. Call it a boring prediction, but that's what I'm going with.
Prediction:
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Watch Out For: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained; Michael Haneke, Amour; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor
Categories like this one just frustrate me to no end because six actors are so well deserving of this recognition, but one five slots are given. Really, as is the case with director, nobody really knows who will the lone soul on the outside looking in. One thing's for sure, though: Daniel Day-Lewis is getting nominated for his breath-taking turn in Lincoln, and he's going to win unless a MAJOR upset is pulled off (Hugh Jackman for Les Mis probably poses the biggest threat). However, that doesn't mean we should ignore the remaining actors because all of them give career-best performances. It's just when Day-Lewis also gives a career-best performace, you're going to lose out. I still can't get by Joaquin Phoenix's negative comments he made about the Oscars a few months back, and when couple that with him not receiving a Screen Actors Guild nomination, I think Phoenix will be the actor left out.
Predcition:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Watch Out For: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Best Actress
I've said since day one that Best Actress is, by far, the weakest field of the major categories, and I hold by that with these final predictions. It's a two-horse race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. One of the those two will win, and rightfully so, because they're really the only two worthy of a victory. The other actresses in the running surely give endearing performances, but nothing that makes you say, "Best of the year." I've got a feeling that something strange is going to transpire come Thursday morning with this category. I don't know why I have that feeling, but I do.
Prediction:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Watch Out For: Emmanuella Riva, Amour; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Best Supporting Actor
This category has been strange all season long. No frontrunner has emerged with seemingly everyone getting a chance to pull out a victory come Oscar night. But if you want to have that chance, you first have to get nominated, something that will be quite an accomplishment in this year's race considering ten actors have a case to be in the field. Tommy Lee Jones and Philip Seymour Hoffman seem to be pretty safe, but after that, I'm not sure anyone really knows. Django Unchained is going to keep someone in the field (if it didn't, it would be a shame). The question is: who? Leonardo DiCaprio has been the leading man since day one, but once the movie was released, Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson have been charging up the front. All three deserve it, but who gets it is beyond me. It's not impossible, albeit not likely, that Django pulls off two nominations, an amazing feat in this year's race.
Prediction:
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Watch Out For: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained; Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained; Javier Bardem, Skyfall; Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables; Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Best Supporting Actress
This race is still over. Anne Hathaway is winnig this award. The only drama left is who will join her in the field. Sally Field and Helen Hunt seem pretty secure, with Amy Adams probably joining them. The last spot can belong to a number of contenders that are really deserving. I believe, like the Best Actress race, something interesting is going to happen here.
Prediction:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Watch Out For: Judi Dench, Skyfall; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Thursday morning we'll be an exciting day in Hollywood. I can only hope that I can join them in their excitement because predictions were pretty accurate. Enjoy the announcement!
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