The day has finally come where I get to make my first Oscar predictions of the season. Now, obviously, these predictions probably won't be the same predictions that I make a few days before the nominations are announced. But that's the beauty of the Oscars. Everyone on this list, whether in the field at the moment or not, is worthy and has given us something that we'll never forget. Predictions might change, but nothing will change the fact that these actors and pictures are the best Hollywood has to offer.
I'm only going to predict the main six categories: picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress. I'll give you who I think is in and why, the "next-in-line" contenders (movies/actors that aren't in, but could be down the road), and the possible spoilers (movies/actors that probably won't get nominated, but you never know).
Best Picture
Every since 2010, the Best Picture race has been very unique, but also very confusing. Up to 2008, there was only 5 nominees, no exceptions. However, in 2008, The Dark Knight was snubbed a nomination, causing the everyday fans to cry out to the Academy to give them movies that they have actually watched. The Academy listened, and expanded the field to 10 nominees for the 2010 and 2011 Oscars. But after the 2011 show, they changed it again, saying that there could be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations. For the 2012 Oscars, we got 9 nominations. Nothing has changed this year, so those rules apply to this year, making it extremely difficult to predict. Luckily, there are numerous worthy films out there. Right now, I have seven films in the field.
The Field
1. Lincoln
When people started looking at this year's race, it would be crazy for people not to look at Steven Spielberg's biopic. However, being the frontrunner that far out could lead to insurmounatble expectations. Those expectations were there for Lincoln, and it went above and beyond those expectations, giving us a truly great American film. The stars shine brighest, led by TIME's greatest living actor on the planet, Daniel Day-Lewis, and supported tremendously by Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones. If you haven't see Lincoln yet, you need to because you'll be hearing its name all season and especially come Oscar Sunday.
2. Les Miserables
As I am writing this, Les Mis has just been screened for an audience in New York. After the film was done, according to reports, a raucous standing ovation followed with tears falling from the eyes of the audience members. After every main musical number, applause followed. And just like that, Les Mis is a top-tier contender. Everything I've read about the screening says that virtually everyone left feeling the same way: awestruck. The movie apparently captures the raw emotion of the musical stage adaption and the actors give career best performances. I thought all along that Les Mis would be a contender, but I might be wrong. It might be the winner.
3. Argo
The film that essentially kicked off the Oscar season was Ben Affleck's Argo. Affleck has directed some high quality movies such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town, but when the nominations were announced in those movie's years, the films and Affleck were ignored (both only receiving 1 nomination). With Argo, though, Affleck finally has a film that the Academy has no choice but pay attention to. By far his best effort, Affleck is able to turn a story that could have gone to the boring side easily and turned it into one of the year's best. With the help of a cast led by Affleck himself and Oscar turns for Alan Arkin and veteran John Goodman, watch out for Argo.
4. Silver Linings Playbook
When Silver Linings Playbook debuted at the Toronto Film Festival earlier in the season, a moderate contender quickly became a force to be reckoned with, with some predictions putting it as the film to beat. Unfortunately, that was before Lincoln and Les Miserables had debuted. That being said, Playbook is still very much in the race. Silver Linings Playbook reminds me of director David O. Russell's last project, The Fighter, when it comes to Oscar contention. The Fighter was able to muster seven nominations, including Best Picture and Director, but only managed two wins in Supporting Actor and Actress. That's my feel, at the moment, for Silver Linings Playbook: heavy contender in the acting categories, but missing out on the big prizes.
5. Life of Pi
The past few years, a family movie has been able to sneak in to the Best Picture field. In 2010, Up received a nomination with Toy Story 3 following in 2011 and Hugo in 2012. 2013's entry is Life of Pi. Director Ang Lee is behind the camera of this movie, and he is an Academy favorite, directing Brokeback Mountain to 8 nominations and 3 wins. This is the first film since Brokeback that the Academy will feel comfortable recognizing Lee's work. Having no animated movies in contention here also helps Pi's chances. It would take a miracle for Life of Pi to get a win here, but a nomination is likely.
6. Zero Dark Thirty
The more and more I think about Zero Dark Thirty and its Oscar prosepcts, the more and more I feel confident that Kathyrn Bigelow is directed her second Best Picture nomination. Obviously, a lot can change with the movie considering nobody has seen it yet. However, all signs point to this one being a serious contender, so until I hear differently, it'll be in the field.
7. The Master
Director Paul Thomas Anderson has had quite an illustrious career, giving us such classics as There Will Be Blood and Magnolia. Rightfully so, expectations were high for The Master starring Oscar hopefuls Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams. When the film was released in September, however, the reviews were divisive, leaving some mesmorized and some unfulfilled. That's never good for an Oscar contender because that is also how the Academy probably feels. Regardless, I expect The Master to hold on, just barely holding off the next in line contenders.
Next in Line
8. Amour
9. Beast of the Southern Wild
10. Django Unchained
11. Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Best Director
This year's Best Director field makes it really easy for people who love movies to get excited about because you have some of the industry's best going up against the best. As will be the case in a few of these categories, some very worthy directors will be left out of the field, which also means that whoever does indeed get nominated has a legit shot at actually winning.
The Field
1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Steven Spielberg is, unquestionably, one of the finest directors Hollywood has ever seen, and the Academy has taken notice over the years, gracing him with 6 Best Director nominations and 2 wins for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. However, taking away his nomination for Munich in 2006, he hasn't received a nomination since Saving Private Ryan back in 1999. The Academy is desperately waiting on the chance to recognize after last year's War Horse failed to live up to expectations. This year is his year.
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
As I wrote in Argo's Best Picture analysis, this is Affleck career best in any field of business, whether it be acting or directing. As long as Argo is contending, Affleck will be contending. It's time for the Academy to recognize one of Hollywood's most talented up and coming directors, and Affleck will reap those demands.
3. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
In 2011, some unknown director named Tom Hooper came in and won Best Director for his Best Picture-winning film, The King's Speech. But anyone can make one fantastic movie. The challenge is making two, and Hooper has done it with Les Mis. I read an article that said that Les Mis is so good that it would not surprise a soul in Hollywood if Hooper joined the ranks of the immortal and won his second Oscar. The momentum for this movie needs to be tremendous, though, if he wants to push beyond Spielberg and Affleck. But you got to start somewhere.
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Life of Pi continues to remind me of last year's Hugo: a family-friendly movie released over Thanksgiving that is visually stunning with no stars but an Oscar-winning director behind the camera. If that comparison holds true, Lee will get his third nomination unless someone below him picks up some serious steam.
5. Kathyrn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
As the movie's momentum goes, Bigelow goes, and at the moment, the momentum is high, allowing Bigelow to sneak into the field. As I mentioned before, a lot of unanswered questions are out there still on the film. If it's good, Bigelow could join Hooper as the shockers of the season. If it's not good, Bigelow won't be able to hold on.
Next in Line
6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
8. Michael Haneke, Amour
9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Possible Spoilers
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Gus Van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor
Of all the categories this year, this one is the most competitive. Some possible nominees that would be frontrunners in other years won't even get in the field. Unlike any category, every single nominee can easily pull out a win.
The Field
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Noticing a trend? Lincoln is a major contender, and you can say the reason for that is because of what Daniel Day-Lewis did, giving us an unforgetable performance as our sixteenth president. With a figure so revered and iconic, Steven Spielberg needed a special actor that would be completely devoted to the character. Saying he hit a homerun with Day-Lewis is quite the understatement. Day-Lewis is considered the industry's greatest living actor, and the fact that some are calling this performance his best is a bold statement. That fact alone will get him his fifth nomination and quite possibly his third win.
2. Denzel Washington, Flight
Who doesn't love Washington? It seems like every movie that he is in is top-notch and something you'll be talking about the rest of the year, and the Academy agrees, giving Denzel 5 nominations over his career with 2 wins. But he hasn't been recognized since 2002, so you better believe that the Academy is chopping at the bit to give him another nomination. A win is a little more difficult because Day-Lewis is ahead of you, but if anyone can dethrone the king, it's Washington.
3. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
I haven't seen The Master myself, but what I've heard about Phoenix's performance is pretty consistent in saying that it's awesome. However, I've also read some of Phoenix's comments about the Oscars, saying that the whole Oscar experience is "BS." Some people dismissed these comments, but I'm not underestimating the effect that these comments will have on the Academy, a very prideful bunch. Phoenix should be able to muster a nomination, but a win is more difficult.
4. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Whenever an actor experiences physical changes to suit a role, the Academy notices. Jackman loss 30 pounds for just the opening minutes of the film, only to gain it back to look like Jean Valjean for the rest of the film. As I watched the stage show, I left feeling that Jackman was absolutely perfect for the part given his experience on Broadway. His role is just too tailor-made for the Academy to ignore.
5. John Hawkes, The Sessions
In a year as competitive as this one, it's difficult for a movie like The Sessions to get any traction in the races. However, what I've heard about Hawkes' performance is that it's pretty stellar and definitely worthy of being next to the first four veterans. If he campaigns hard enough, he should sneak in to the field, but a win is probably not going to happen.
Next in Line
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
8. Richard Gere, Arbitrage
9. Jean-Louis Trintigant, Amour
Possible Spoilers
Ben Affleck, Argo
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Jaime Foxx, Django Unchained
Best Actress
We've gone from the most competitive category of the year to the least competitive category of the year. No disrespect to the ladies in the field at the moment, but only two actresses have a legitimate shot of winning this one, with the other three nominees just happy to be nominated.
The Field
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
The part of Silver Linings Playbook that benefited the most from the buzz after the Toronto Film Festival is Jennifer Lawrence, who went from possible nominee to clear-cut frontrunner. With already one Oscar nomination under her belt for 2010's Winter's Bone and, of course, The Hunger Games franchsie, Lawrence is quickly becoming one of Hollywood's finest actresses, and she, barring a career-defining performance from Jessica Chastain, will take step one to becoming one of Hollywood's elites in February: winning an Oscar.
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Last year, Chastain might have had the best year an actress has ever had, going from absolute no one to Oscar nominee with her turn in The Help. This year, she's back and is likely the only legit challenger to Lawrence. All signs point to Chastain given the opportunity to shine, and if Zero Dark Thirty is as good as anticipated, we'll have a race on our hands.
3. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Coming in at only nine years old, Wallis will easily be the youngest Oscar nominee, and she is reaping the benefits of a weak field. In most years, the Academy wouldn't dare nominate someone so young, but combine the fact that Wallis gives an impressive performance with a weak field and Wallis is on her way to a nomination, but a win isn't going to happen as of now.
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
In many critic's opinion, Cotillard is the finest actress in the business today, winning Best Actress back in 2008. She has turned in another worthy performance, and with this weak field, I think she'll be able to sneak in on name status alone.
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
I really don't know who will get this last spot. Watts was just the one I felt like putting there today.
Next in Line
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Kiera Knightley, Anna Karenina
10. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Possible Spoilers
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Elle Fanning, Ginger and Rosa
Best Supporting Actor
This year's field of nominees is so exciting because you have veteran actors who have taken supporting roles and delivered the goods. Most of the actors are used to being the star, but these performances proved that they can do anything asked of them, furthur asserting themselves as Hollywood's best.
The Field
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Unlike his counterpart Phoenix, Hoffman has kept his mouth shut about the Oscars, and the result is frontrunner status. His role is the steady force behind The Master and that fact alone should give Hoffman a legit shot at receiving his fourth nomination and maybe his second win.
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
We all knew that Jones would be good in Lincoln. Nobody expected him to be this good. He's a straight-up scene stealer, and he has scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis! Hoffman, though, had such a big lead to begin with that Jones is going to have to pick up some steam before I'm able to put him on top, but it's definitely in the picture of that happening.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
It's one of Hollywood's biggest disgraces: Leonardo DiCaprio is Oscar-less. He's been nominated for three Oscars, but he's never been able to give a speech come Oscar night. But that could change this year with his supporting turn in Django Unchained. I know nothing about the quality of this movie yet. I'm going strictly based off the description of DiCaprio's role and my gut instinct. If it's good, we'll have a challenger to Hoffman and Jones.
4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro has been around the block a few times before, receiving six Oscar nominations with two of those resulting in wins. The first nominations came way back in 1975 when he won the Oscar for, coincidently, Best Supporting Actor in The Godfather Part II. His other five nominations have come in the lead category, so this is the first time since then that the Academy is likely to nominate the veteran for a supporting turn. As long as Playbook remains hot, De Niro will be in the chase.
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
This might be wishful thinking, but I believe Les Mis will be a major contender in all these categories. Therefore, Crowe or Eddie Redmayne would have to represent it in this category. Crowe is not a newcomer like Redmayne, though. The Academy has given Crowe three nominations including a win for his role in Gladiator. If Les Mis's momentum continues to pick up, one of these two should be able to sneak in. Right now, my money's on Crowe.
Next in Line
6. Alan Arkin, Argo
7. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
9. William H. Macy, The Sessions
Possible Spoilers
John Goodman, Argo or Flight
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actress
If what I'm reading is true, this race is over. Anne Hathaway, for her role as Fantine in Les Miserables, should start writing her acceptance speech now. However, a few actresses might have something to say about that.
The Field
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
I've been loving on Les Mis everywhere, but this is the first time that we find it on top. Everything that I've been hearing about this movie is spectacular, but one thing also stands out, and that's the consensus love for Hathaway. I have yet to read something that doesn't say Hathaway is the clear frontrunner here. The fact that it just premiered helps too because not a lot of people has seen this movie, allowing Hathaway and her co-stars to gain some precious momentum.
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
In the 1980's, Field could do no wrong in the Academy's eye, receiving two nominations and two wins. But Field never got back into the Oscar's graces since then. Now, she's back and Hathaway's biggest competition. It's not easy sharing a stage with Daniel Day-Lewis, but Field does it in many scenes and stands her ground. When you can do that, you deserve a nomination.
3. Amy Adams, The Master
The current Oscar darling is Amy Adams as she has received three nominations in just six years. This year, she should get nomination number four. The Master is a force to be reckoned with in its respected acting fields, and Adams is its female representative. A win will be tough considered who's ahead of her, but a nomination should come.
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
The Sessions reminds me a lot of last year's My Week with Marilyn, a movie that gets a couple acting nominations but never contends for the big prizes. Hunt and John Hawkes should be able to muster nominations, but wins for these two are not going to happen unless a miracle occurs.
5. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
I believe one of Hathaway's co-stars, whether it be Barks, Amanda Seyfried, or Helena Bonham Carter, is going to join her in this field. Right now, everything I've read says it's Barks. She's also helped out by the fact that there's really no other actress coming up and earning her slot in the field. Unless someone does just that, Barks could give Les Mis its second Best Supporting Actress nom.
Next in Line
6. Amanda Seyfried, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Les Miserables
9. Judi Dench, Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Frances McDormand, Promised Land
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Kelly Reilly, Flight
There you have it! My first Oscar predictions of the season! Obviously, these will change, but I do think this isn't a bad start. Stay tune for some updates along the way.....
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Not So Fast: 4 Movies That Could Change the Oscar Race
It truly is the most wonderful time of the year. Everyone gathers together to spend some quality time with friends and family to celebrate what we really are thankful for as we enjoy the festivities of the holiday season.
It's also the most wonderful time of the year for a movie fan because it's Oscar season, and when Oscar season rolls around, film companies put their best movies forward in hopes of wooing the voters to give them the gold statue come February.
By this time, we usually have a pretty good grasp on what movies we can expect to be there in the end. Movies that we anticipated being in the race are very much there. Since the announcement of its production, Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, has been christened a frontrunner, and it hasn't disappointed. It has maintained that frontrunner status in Best Picture, Actor, and Director, with nominations certainly to come in Supporting Actor and Actress. Ben Affleck has had quite an interesting career, evolving from his Daredevil acting days to directing very high quality film such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town. However, the Oscars have all but ignored his talents. That will all change this year thanks to Argo, the biggest challenger at the moment to Lincoln. David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook will definitely be a contender thanks to its fantastic performances. Other films, such as Life of Pi, The Master, and Amour, will also be in the thick of things.
However, the Oscar race is by no means set in stone quite yet. I look at five movies that have yet to be released yet that can cause some chaos in the race.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Lord of the Rings franchise is one of the most popular franchises worldwide, but unlike its franchise counterparts, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings have been recognized by the Academy Awards on multiple occasions. The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for twelve Oscars including four wins. The Two Towers got six nominations and two victories. The Return of the King was given the most love from the Academy, receiving eleven nominations and eleven wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. To say the bar has been set high for The Hobbit franchise is quite an understatement.
What's Going For It:
Everything that I just mentioned works in its favorite. The Academy is a fan of the Peter Jackson franchise. Why wouldn't they want to nominate it again if it's good enough? Another thing is that this could be the only fanboy favorite that has a legit shot of getting some nominations. Movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers had high hopes of shocking the world and getting a Best Picture nomination, but those scenarios never panned out. The Dark Knight Rises had obvious aspirations of Oscars, but its momentum is all but gone. That leaves The Hobbit to represent the everyday fan at the Oscars. The Academy, in recent years, have expressed interest in improving their ratings by getting those necessary movies into the field. That was the main reason why the expanded the Best Picture field from five movies to ten movies after The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. The Hobbit would certainly cause some younger audience members to tune in in February.
What's Going Against It:
Tough competition. Every category this year is highly competitive (outside of Best Actress, a category The Hobbit can't even be considered for anyway). It would have to do the unthinkable and surpass everyone's expectations and be significantly better than the original trilogy. I simply don't see that happening. The trailers give us the "been there, done that" feel, which is fine for fans, but that won't cut it for the Academy.
What to Expect:
Technical categories (i.e. Best Production Design and Best Makeup)
2. Django Unchained
When movie buffs think of the greatest directors of all-time, Quentin Tarantino is in the conversation. It seems that every movie that he puts out there is an instant cult-classic, and Django Unchained has all the makings of doing just that, boasting a stellar cast led by Christoph Waltz and Jaime Foxx with Leonardo Dicaprio as the villain.
What's Going For It:
The Academy can be a pretty big fan of Tarantino's work, giving Q four nominations with one win over the span of his career. When a movie has a cast such as this one, the acting can carry it to some Oscar love (check out The Help). It's being released on Christmas Day, a coveted spot for Oscar hopefuls, which leads me to believe that the people behind this movie has faith in it.
What's Going Against It:
As was the case for The Hobbit, tough competiton looms. However, Django Unchained has internal competition as well. Everyone expected Jaime Foxx to be a candidate for Best Actor, but earlier this month, it was announced that Christoph Waltz would also be campaigned for a Best Actor nomination instead of a Best Supporting Actor. That brings up the problem of split-voting, where voters will have to choose between Foxx and Waltz instead of the movie having just one candidate to compete with everyone else instead of competing with themselves. Same situation for Best Supporting Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is long overdue an Oscar, but early word is that Samuel L. Jackson could be the better candidate. This year makes it difficult enough to compete with other movies. You simply can't have internal competition in a race like this.
What to Expect:
Competing for Best Actor and Supporting Actress but falling short
Just sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor field
3. Les Miserables
What happens when you tell me that the most beloved musical of all-time has cast Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Russell Crowe to bring an extremely powerful story to life? I would tell you that you had a serious Oscar contender on your hands, and that's what I fully expect Les Mis to be.
What's Going For It:
Tom Hooper is the director, and this is his follow-up to 2010's The King's Speech, which was nominated for twelve Oscars also receiving four wins, including Best Picture, Actor, and, of course, Director. Hooper's name is definitely in the minds of the voters, and he's very popular in their eyes. He's been given one of the most cherished pieces of literature ever written. If anyone around today can pull this off, I believe that man is Tom Hooper. But he'll have plenty of help from his stellar cast. In addition to the three mentioned above, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, and Sacha Baron Cohen also star. The musical and book is so powerful that if they can pull it off with the same emotion as they did, you could be looking at your Best Picture. It's also being released on Christmas Day, so it will be one of the last movies the voters will see, keeping it fresh on their minds.
What's Going Against It:
Hollywood adaptions of musicals have been hit, but mostly miss. In 2002, Chicago shocked the industry when it was nominated for thirteen nominations including six wins. Every since then, people have been trying to match that result. The best comparison for a Hollywood musical with Les Mis has to be Phantom of the Opera. Released just two years removed from Chicago, Phantom only mustered three nomination (the most prestigious being Best Original Song) and zero wins. It was a beloved musical with high expectations and a very talented director (Joel Schumacher), but it couldn't live up to the hype. However, Les Mis has something Phantom didn't have: a talented cast. Gerard Butler led the way for Phantom, and with all due respect to Butler, Hugh Jackman beats Gerard Butler any day of the week. Honestly, there's not much going against Les Mis. If it's as good as we expect it to be, watch out.
What to Expect:
Nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress
More than contending in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay
Quite a few technical categories
4. Zero Dark Thirty
In 2009, James Cameron's Avatar lit up the box office on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in movie history. Many people (including myself) thought that this success would equal Oscar gold. However, when Oscar Sunday rolled around, The Hurt Locker, grossing only sixteen million dollars, was your Best Picture and Kathyrn Bigelow was your Best Director. Now, Bigelow is back, and for the first time in her career, a household name with the Academy.
What's Going For It:
As the season continues on, Zero Dark Thirty has picked a whole lot of steam. Momentum is always a big factor when it comes to the Oscars, and it has a lot of it. Another advantage for it is simply its subject matter. This film follows the events preceding the eventual operation that would kill Osama Bin Laden. That sounds like something the Academy would eat with a spoon. It also has a stellar cast, led by 2011's breakthrough star Jessica Chastain, who will getting plenty of attention in a weak Best Actress field.
What's Going Against It:
Argo's success hurts it. I find it hard to believe that the Academy will nominate two movies with the same basic feel to it. They'll nominate one, but I firmly believe that one will be Argo. Tough competition is also a factor. In the categories that it has a chance of doing something in, plenty of contenders are waiting.
What to Expect:
Best Actress nomination for Chastain
Contending for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress in addition to the technical categories
How much these four films will effect the race can't be determined right now, but a month from now, these movies have the chance to drastically change the scope of the fields. This weekend, I'll release my first Oscar predictions. Just know that those predictions won't be the ones I stick with, and the reason for that are these four movies.
Let the race begin.
It's also the most wonderful time of the year for a movie fan because it's Oscar season, and when Oscar season rolls around, film companies put their best movies forward in hopes of wooing the voters to give them the gold statue come February.
By this time, we usually have a pretty good grasp on what movies we can expect to be there in the end. Movies that we anticipated being in the race are very much there. Since the announcement of its production, Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, has been christened a frontrunner, and it hasn't disappointed. It has maintained that frontrunner status in Best Picture, Actor, and Director, with nominations certainly to come in Supporting Actor and Actress. Ben Affleck has had quite an interesting career, evolving from his Daredevil acting days to directing very high quality film such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town. However, the Oscars have all but ignored his talents. That will all change this year thanks to Argo, the biggest challenger at the moment to Lincoln. David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook will definitely be a contender thanks to its fantastic performances. Other films, such as Life of Pi, The Master, and Amour, will also be in the thick of things.
However, the Oscar race is by no means set in stone quite yet. I look at five movies that have yet to be released yet that can cause some chaos in the race.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Lord of the Rings franchise is one of the most popular franchises worldwide, but unlike its franchise counterparts, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings have been recognized by the Academy Awards on multiple occasions. The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for twelve Oscars including four wins. The Two Towers got six nominations and two victories. The Return of the King was given the most love from the Academy, receiving eleven nominations and eleven wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. To say the bar has been set high for The Hobbit franchise is quite an understatement.
What's Going For It:
Everything that I just mentioned works in its favorite. The Academy is a fan of the Peter Jackson franchise. Why wouldn't they want to nominate it again if it's good enough? Another thing is that this could be the only fanboy favorite that has a legit shot of getting some nominations. Movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers had high hopes of shocking the world and getting a Best Picture nomination, but those scenarios never panned out. The Dark Knight Rises had obvious aspirations of Oscars, but its momentum is all but gone. That leaves The Hobbit to represent the everyday fan at the Oscars. The Academy, in recent years, have expressed interest in improving their ratings by getting those necessary movies into the field. That was the main reason why the expanded the Best Picture field from five movies to ten movies after The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. The Hobbit would certainly cause some younger audience members to tune in in February.
What's Going Against It:
Tough competition. Every category this year is highly competitive (outside of Best Actress, a category The Hobbit can't even be considered for anyway). It would have to do the unthinkable and surpass everyone's expectations and be significantly better than the original trilogy. I simply don't see that happening. The trailers give us the "been there, done that" feel, which is fine for fans, but that won't cut it for the Academy.
What to Expect:
Technical categories (i.e. Best Production Design and Best Makeup)
2. Django Unchained
When movie buffs think of the greatest directors of all-time, Quentin Tarantino is in the conversation. It seems that every movie that he puts out there is an instant cult-classic, and Django Unchained has all the makings of doing just that, boasting a stellar cast led by Christoph Waltz and Jaime Foxx with Leonardo Dicaprio as the villain.
What's Going For It:
The Academy can be a pretty big fan of Tarantino's work, giving Q four nominations with one win over the span of his career. When a movie has a cast such as this one, the acting can carry it to some Oscar love (check out The Help). It's being released on Christmas Day, a coveted spot for Oscar hopefuls, which leads me to believe that the people behind this movie has faith in it.
What's Going Against It:
As was the case for The Hobbit, tough competiton looms. However, Django Unchained has internal competition as well. Everyone expected Jaime Foxx to be a candidate for Best Actor, but earlier this month, it was announced that Christoph Waltz would also be campaigned for a Best Actor nomination instead of a Best Supporting Actor. That brings up the problem of split-voting, where voters will have to choose between Foxx and Waltz instead of the movie having just one candidate to compete with everyone else instead of competing with themselves. Same situation for Best Supporting Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is long overdue an Oscar, but early word is that Samuel L. Jackson could be the better candidate. This year makes it difficult enough to compete with other movies. You simply can't have internal competition in a race like this.
What to Expect:
Competing for Best Actor and Supporting Actress but falling short
Just sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor field
3. Les Miserables
What happens when you tell me that the most beloved musical of all-time has cast Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Russell Crowe to bring an extremely powerful story to life? I would tell you that you had a serious Oscar contender on your hands, and that's what I fully expect Les Mis to be.
What's Going For It:
Tom Hooper is the director, and this is his follow-up to 2010's The King's Speech, which was nominated for twelve Oscars also receiving four wins, including Best Picture, Actor, and, of course, Director. Hooper's name is definitely in the minds of the voters, and he's very popular in their eyes. He's been given one of the most cherished pieces of literature ever written. If anyone around today can pull this off, I believe that man is Tom Hooper. But he'll have plenty of help from his stellar cast. In addition to the three mentioned above, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, and Sacha Baron Cohen also star. The musical and book is so powerful that if they can pull it off with the same emotion as they did, you could be looking at your Best Picture. It's also being released on Christmas Day, so it will be one of the last movies the voters will see, keeping it fresh on their minds.
What's Going Against It:
Hollywood adaptions of musicals have been hit, but mostly miss. In 2002, Chicago shocked the industry when it was nominated for thirteen nominations including six wins. Every since then, people have been trying to match that result. The best comparison for a Hollywood musical with Les Mis has to be Phantom of the Opera. Released just two years removed from Chicago, Phantom only mustered three nomination (the most prestigious being Best Original Song) and zero wins. It was a beloved musical with high expectations and a very talented director (Joel Schumacher), but it couldn't live up to the hype. However, Les Mis has something Phantom didn't have: a talented cast. Gerard Butler led the way for Phantom, and with all due respect to Butler, Hugh Jackman beats Gerard Butler any day of the week. Honestly, there's not much going against Les Mis. If it's as good as we expect it to be, watch out.
What to Expect:
Nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress
More than contending in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay
Quite a few technical categories
4. Zero Dark Thirty
In 2009, James Cameron's Avatar lit up the box office on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in movie history. Many people (including myself) thought that this success would equal Oscar gold. However, when Oscar Sunday rolled around, The Hurt Locker, grossing only sixteen million dollars, was your Best Picture and Kathyrn Bigelow was your Best Director. Now, Bigelow is back, and for the first time in her career, a household name with the Academy.
What's Going For It:
As the season continues on, Zero Dark Thirty has picked a whole lot of steam. Momentum is always a big factor when it comes to the Oscars, and it has a lot of it. Another advantage for it is simply its subject matter. This film follows the events preceding the eventual operation that would kill Osama Bin Laden. That sounds like something the Academy would eat with a spoon. It also has a stellar cast, led by 2011's breakthrough star Jessica Chastain, who will getting plenty of attention in a weak Best Actress field.
What's Going Against It:
Argo's success hurts it. I find it hard to believe that the Academy will nominate two movies with the same basic feel to it. They'll nominate one, but I firmly believe that one will be Argo. Tough competition is also a factor. In the categories that it has a chance of doing something in, plenty of contenders are waiting.
What to Expect:
Best Actress nomination for Chastain
Contending for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress in addition to the technical categories
How much these four films will effect the race can't be determined right now, but a month from now, these movies have the chance to drastically change the scope of the fields. This weekend, I'll release my first Oscar predictions. Just know that those predictions won't be the ones I stick with, and the reason for that are these four movies.
Let the race begin.
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