It truly is the most wonderful time of the year. Everyone gathers together to spend some quality time with friends and family to celebrate what we really are thankful for as we enjoy the festivities of the holiday season.
It's also the most wonderful time of the year for a movie fan because it's Oscar season, and when Oscar season rolls around, film companies put their best movies forward in hopes of wooing the voters to give them the gold statue come February.
By this time, we usually have a pretty good grasp on what movies we can expect to be there in the end. Movies that we anticipated being in the race are very much there. Since the announcement of its production, Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, has been christened a frontrunner, and it hasn't disappointed. It has maintained that frontrunner status in Best Picture, Actor, and Director, with nominations certainly to come in Supporting Actor and Actress. Ben Affleck has had quite an interesting career, evolving from his Daredevil acting days to directing very high quality film such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town. However, the Oscars have all but ignored his talents. That will all change this year thanks to Argo, the biggest challenger at the moment to Lincoln. David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook will definitely be a contender thanks to its fantastic performances. Other films, such as Life of Pi, The Master, and Amour, will also be in the thick of things.
However, the Oscar race is by no means set in stone quite yet. I look at five movies that have yet to be released yet that can cause some chaos in the race.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Lord of the Rings franchise is one of the most popular franchises worldwide, but unlike its franchise counterparts, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings have been recognized by the Academy Awards on multiple occasions. The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for twelve Oscars including four wins. The Two Towers got six nominations and two victories. The Return of the King was given the most love from the Academy, receiving eleven nominations and eleven wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. To say the bar has been set high for The Hobbit franchise is quite an understatement.
What's Going For It:
Everything that I just mentioned works in its favorite. The Academy is a fan of the Peter Jackson franchise. Why wouldn't they want to nominate it again if it's good enough? Another thing is that this could be the only fanboy favorite that has a legit shot of getting some nominations. Movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers had high hopes of shocking the world and getting a Best Picture nomination, but those scenarios never panned out. The Dark Knight Rises had obvious aspirations of Oscars, but its momentum is all but gone. That leaves The Hobbit to represent the everyday fan at the Oscars. The Academy, in recent years, have expressed interest in improving their ratings by getting those necessary movies into the field. That was the main reason why the expanded the Best Picture field from five movies to ten movies after The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. The Hobbit would certainly cause some younger audience members to tune in in February.
What's Going Against It:
Tough competition. Every category this year is highly competitive (outside of Best Actress, a category The Hobbit can't even be considered for anyway). It would have to do the unthinkable and surpass everyone's expectations and be significantly better than the original trilogy. I simply don't see that happening. The trailers give us the "been there, done that" feel, which is fine for fans, but that won't cut it for the Academy.
What to Expect:
Technical categories (i.e. Best Production Design and Best Makeup)
2. Django Unchained
When movie buffs think of the greatest directors of all-time, Quentin Tarantino is in the conversation. It seems that every movie that he puts out there is an instant cult-classic, and Django Unchained has all the makings of doing just that, boasting a stellar cast led by Christoph Waltz and Jaime Foxx with Leonardo Dicaprio as the villain.
What's Going For It:
The Academy can be a pretty big fan of Tarantino's work, giving Q four nominations with one win over the span of his career. When a movie has a cast such as this one, the acting can carry it to some Oscar love (check out The Help). It's being released on Christmas Day, a coveted spot for Oscar hopefuls, which leads me to believe that the people behind this movie has faith in it.
What's Going Against It:
As was the case for The Hobbit, tough competiton looms. However, Django Unchained has internal competition as well. Everyone expected Jaime Foxx to be a candidate for Best Actor, but earlier this month, it was announced that Christoph Waltz would also be campaigned for a Best Actor nomination instead of a Best Supporting Actor. That brings up the problem of split-voting, where voters will have to choose between Foxx and Waltz instead of the movie having just one candidate to compete with everyone else instead of competing with themselves. Same situation for Best Supporting Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is long overdue an Oscar, but early word is that Samuel L. Jackson could be the better candidate. This year makes it difficult enough to compete with other movies. You simply can't have internal competition in a race like this.
What to Expect:
Competing for Best Actor and Supporting Actress but falling short
Just sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor field
3. Les Miserables
What happens when you tell me that the most beloved musical of all-time has cast Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Russell Crowe to bring an extremely powerful story to life? I would tell you that you had a serious Oscar contender on your hands, and that's what I fully expect Les Mis to be.
What's Going For It:
Tom Hooper is the director, and this is his follow-up to 2010's The King's Speech, which was nominated for twelve Oscars also receiving four wins, including Best Picture, Actor, and, of course, Director. Hooper's name is definitely in the minds of the voters, and he's very popular in their eyes. He's been given one of the most cherished pieces of literature ever written. If anyone around today can pull this off, I believe that man is Tom Hooper. But he'll have plenty of help from his stellar cast. In addition to the three mentioned above, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, and Sacha Baron Cohen also star. The musical and book is so powerful that if they can pull it off with the same emotion as they did, you could be looking at your Best Picture. It's also being released on Christmas Day, so it will be one of the last movies the voters will see, keeping it fresh on their minds.
What's Going Against It:
Hollywood adaptions of musicals have been hit, but mostly miss. In 2002, Chicago shocked the industry when it was nominated for thirteen nominations including six wins. Every since then, people have been trying to match that result. The best comparison for a Hollywood musical with Les Mis has to be Phantom of the Opera. Released just two years removed from Chicago, Phantom only mustered three nomination (the most prestigious being Best Original Song) and zero wins. It was a beloved musical with high expectations and a very talented director (Joel Schumacher), but it couldn't live up to the hype. However, Les Mis has something Phantom didn't have: a talented cast. Gerard Butler led the way for Phantom, and with all due respect to Butler, Hugh Jackman beats Gerard Butler any day of the week. Honestly, there's not much going against Les Mis. If it's as good as we expect it to be, watch out.
What to Expect:
Nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress
More than contending in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay
Quite a few technical categories
4. Zero Dark Thirty
In 2009, James Cameron's Avatar lit up the box office on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in movie history. Many people (including myself) thought that this success would equal Oscar gold. However, when Oscar Sunday rolled around, The Hurt Locker, grossing only sixteen million dollars, was your Best Picture and Kathyrn Bigelow was your Best Director. Now, Bigelow is back, and for the first time in her career, a household name with the Academy.
What's Going For It:
As the season continues on, Zero Dark Thirty has picked a whole lot of steam. Momentum is always a big factor when it comes to the Oscars, and it has a lot of it. Another advantage for it is simply its subject matter. This film follows the events preceding the eventual operation that would kill Osama Bin Laden. That sounds like something the Academy would eat with a spoon. It also has a stellar cast, led by 2011's breakthrough star Jessica Chastain, who will getting plenty of attention in a weak Best Actress field.
What's Going Against It:
Argo's success hurts it. I find it hard to believe that the Academy will nominate two movies with the same basic feel to it. They'll nominate one, but I firmly believe that one will be Argo. Tough competition is also a factor. In the categories that it has a chance of doing something in, plenty of contenders are waiting.
What to Expect:
Best Actress nomination for Chastain
Contending for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress in addition to the technical categories
How much these four films will effect the race can't be determined right now, but a month from now, these movies have the chance to drastically change the scope of the fields. This weekend, I'll release my first Oscar predictions. Just know that those predictions won't be the ones I stick with, and the reason for that are these four movies.
Let the race begin.
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