The day has finally come where I get to make my first Oscar predictions of the season. Now, obviously, these predictions probably won't be the same predictions that I make a few days before the nominations are announced. But that's the beauty of the Oscars. Everyone on this list, whether in the field at the moment or not, is worthy and has given us something that we'll never forget. Predictions might change, but nothing will change the fact that these actors and pictures are the best Hollywood has to offer.
I'm only going to predict the main six categories: picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress. I'll give you who I think is in and why, the "next-in-line" contenders (movies/actors that aren't in, but could be down the road), and the possible spoilers (movies/actors that probably won't get nominated, but you never know).
Best Picture
Every since 2010, the Best Picture race has been very unique, but also very confusing. Up to 2008, there was only 5 nominees, no exceptions. However, in 2008, The Dark Knight was snubbed a nomination, causing the everyday fans to cry out to the Academy to give them movies that they have actually watched. The Academy listened, and expanded the field to 10 nominees for the 2010 and 2011 Oscars. But after the 2011 show, they changed it again, saying that there could be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations. For the 2012 Oscars, we got 9 nominations. Nothing has changed this year, so those rules apply to this year, making it extremely difficult to predict. Luckily, there are numerous worthy films out there. Right now, I have seven films in the field.
The Field
1. Lincoln
When people started looking at this year's race, it would be crazy for people not to look at Steven Spielberg's biopic. However, being the frontrunner that far out could lead to insurmounatble expectations. Those expectations were there for Lincoln, and it went above and beyond those expectations, giving us a truly great American film. The stars shine brighest, led by TIME's greatest living actor on the planet, Daniel Day-Lewis, and supported tremendously by Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones. If you haven't see Lincoln yet, you need to because you'll be hearing its name all season and especially come Oscar Sunday.
2. Les Miserables
As I am writing this, Les Mis has just been screened for an audience in New York. After the film was done, according to reports, a raucous standing ovation followed with tears falling from the eyes of the audience members. After every main musical number, applause followed. And just like that, Les Mis is a top-tier contender. Everything I've read about the screening says that virtually everyone left feeling the same way: awestruck. The movie apparently captures the raw emotion of the musical stage adaption and the actors give career best performances. I thought all along that Les Mis would be a contender, but I might be wrong. It might be the winner.
3. Argo
The film that essentially kicked off the Oscar season was Ben Affleck's Argo. Affleck has directed some high quality movies such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town, but when the nominations were announced in those movie's years, the films and Affleck were ignored (both only receiving 1 nomination). With Argo, though, Affleck finally has a film that the Academy has no choice but pay attention to. By far his best effort, Affleck is able to turn a story that could have gone to the boring side easily and turned it into one of the year's best. With the help of a cast led by Affleck himself and Oscar turns for Alan Arkin and veteran John Goodman, watch out for Argo.
4. Silver Linings Playbook
When Silver Linings Playbook debuted at the Toronto Film Festival earlier in the season, a moderate contender quickly became a force to be reckoned with, with some predictions putting it as the film to beat. Unfortunately, that was before Lincoln and Les Miserables had debuted. That being said, Playbook is still very much in the race. Silver Linings Playbook reminds me of director David O. Russell's last project, The Fighter, when it comes to Oscar contention. The Fighter was able to muster seven nominations, including Best Picture and Director, but only managed two wins in Supporting Actor and Actress. That's my feel, at the moment, for Silver Linings Playbook: heavy contender in the acting categories, but missing out on the big prizes.
5. Life of Pi
The past few years, a family movie has been able to sneak in to the Best Picture field. In 2010, Up received a nomination with Toy Story 3 following in 2011 and Hugo in 2012. 2013's entry is Life of Pi. Director Ang Lee is behind the camera of this movie, and he is an Academy favorite, directing Brokeback Mountain to 8 nominations and 3 wins. This is the first film since Brokeback that the Academy will feel comfortable recognizing Lee's work. Having no animated movies in contention here also helps Pi's chances. It would take a miracle for Life of Pi to get a win here, but a nomination is likely.
6. Zero Dark Thirty
The more and more I think about Zero Dark Thirty and its Oscar prosepcts, the more and more I feel confident that Kathyrn Bigelow is directed her second Best Picture nomination. Obviously, a lot can change with the movie considering nobody has seen it yet. However, all signs point to this one being a serious contender, so until I hear differently, it'll be in the field.
7. The Master
Director Paul Thomas Anderson has had quite an illustrious career, giving us such classics as There Will Be Blood and Magnolia. Rightfully so, expectations were high for The Master starring Oscar hopefuls Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams. When the film was released in September, however, the reviews were divisive, leaving some mesmorized and some unfulfilled. That's never good for an Oscar contender because that is also how the Academy probably feels. Regardless, I expect The Master to hold on, just barely holding off the next in line contenders.
Next in Line
8. Amour
9. Beast of the Southern Wild
10. Django Unchained
11. Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Best Director
This year's Best Director field makes it really easy for people who love movies to get excited about because you have some of the industry's best going up against the best. As will be the case in a few of these categories, some very worthy directors will be left out of the field, which also means that whoever does indeed get nominated has a legit shot at actually winning.
The Field
1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Steven Spielberg is, unquestionably, one of the finest directors Hollywood has ever seen, and the Academy has taken notice over the years, gracing him with 6 Best Director nominations and 2 wins for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. However, taking away his nomination for Munich in 2006, he hasn't received a nomination since Saving Private Ryan back in 1999. The Academy is desperately waiting on the chance to recognize after last year's War Horse failed to live up to expectations. This year is his year.
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
As I wrote in Argo's Best Picture analysis, this is Affleck career best in any field of business, whether it be acting or directing. As long as Argo is contending, Affleck will be contending. It's time for the Academy to recognize one of Hollywood's most talented up and coming directors, and Affleck will reap those demands.
3. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
In 2011, some unknown director named Tom Hooper came in and won Best Director for his Best Picture-winning film, The King's Speech. But anyone can make one fantastic movie. The challenge is making two, and Hooper has done it with Les Mis. I read an article that said that Les Mis is so good that it would not surprise a soul in Hollywood if Hooper joined the ranks of the immortal and won his second Oscar. The momentum for this movie needs to be tremendous, though, if he wants to push beyond Spielberg and Affleck. But you got to start somewhere.
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Life of Pi continues to remind me of last year's Hugo: a family-friendly movie released over Thanksgiving that is visually stunning with no stars but an Oscar-winning director behind the camera. If that comparison holds true, Lee will get his third nomination unless someone below him picks up some serious steam.
5. Kathyrn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
As the movie's momentum goes, Bigelow goes, and at the moment, the momentum is high, allowing Bigelow to sneak into the field. As I mentioned before, a lot of unanswered questions are out there still on the film. If it's good, Bigelow could join Hooper as the shockers of the season. If it's not good, Bigelow won't be able to hold on.
Next in Line
6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
8. Michael Haneke, Amour
9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Possible Spoilers
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Gus Van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor
Of all the categories this year, this one is the most competitive. Some possible nominees that would be frontrunners in other years won't even get in the field. Unlike any category, every single nominee can easily pull out a win.
The Field
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Noticing a trend? Lincoln is a major contender, and you can say the reason for that is because of what Daniel Day-Lewis did, giving us an unforgetable performance as our sixteenth president. With a figure so revered and iconic, Steven Spielberg needed a special actor that would be completely devoted to the character. Saying he hit a homerun with Day-Lewis is quite the understatement. Day-Lewis is considered the industry's greatest living actor, and the fact that some are calling this performance his best is a bold statement. That fact alone will get him his fifth nomination and quite possibly his third win.
2. Denzel Washington, Flight
Who doesn't love Washington? It seems like every movie that he is in is top-notch and something you'll be talking about the rest of the year, and the Academy agrees, giving Denzel 5 nominations over his career with 2 wins. But he hasn't been recognized since 2002, so you better believe that the Academy is chopping at the bit to give him another nomination. A win is a little more difficult because Day-Lewis is ahead of you, but if anyone can dethrone the king, it's Washington.
3. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
I haven't seen The Master myself, but what I've heard about Phoenix's performance is pretty consistent in saying that it's awesome. However, I've also read some of Phoenix's comments about the Oscars, saying that the whole Oscar experience is "BS." Some people dismissed these comments, but I'm not underestimating the effect that these comments will have on the Academy, a very prideful bunch. Phoenix should be able to muster a nomination, but a win is more difficult.
4. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Whenever an actor experiences physical changes to suit a role, the Academy notices. Jackman loss 30 pounds for just the opening minutes of the film, only to gain it back to look like Jean Valjean for the rest of the film. As I watched the stage show, I left feeling that Jackman was absolutely perfect for the part given his experience on Broadway. His role is just too tailor-made for the Academy to ignore.
5. John Hawkes, The Sessions
In a year as competitive as this one, it's difficult for a movie like The Sessions to get any traction in the races. However, what I've heard about Hawkes' performance is that it's pretty stellar and definitely worthy of being next to the first four veterans. If he campaigns hard enough, he should sneak in to the field, but a win is probably not going to happen.
Next in Line
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
8. Richard Gere, Arbitrage
9. Jean-Louis Trintigant, Amour
Possible Spoilers
Ben Affleck, Argo
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Jaime Foxx, Django Unchained
Best Actress
We've gone from the most competitive category of the year to the least competitive category of the year. No disrespect to the ladies in the field at the moment, but only two actresses have a legitimate shot of winning this one, with the other three nominees just happy to be nominated.
The Field
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
The part of Silver Linings Playbook that benefited the most from the buzz after the Toronto Film Festival is Jennifer Lawrence, who went from possible nominee to clear-cut frontrunner. With already one Oscar nomination under her belt for 2010's Winter's Bone and, of course, The Hunger Games franchsie, Lawrence is quickly becoming one of Hollywood's finest actresses, and she, barring a career-defining performance from Jessica Chastain, will take step one to becoming one of Hollywood's elites in February: winning an Oscar.
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Last year, Chastain might have had the best year an actress has ever had, going from absolute no one to Oscar nominee with her turn in The Help. This year, she's back and is likely the only legit challenger to Lawrence. All signs point to Chastain given the opportunity to shine, and if Zero Dark Thirty is as good as anticipated, we'll have a race on our hands.
3. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Coming in at only nine years old, Wallis will easily be the youngest Oscar nominee, and she is reaping the benefits of a weak field. In most years, the Academy wouldn't dare nominate someone so young, but combine the fact that Wallis gives an impressive performance with a weak field and Wallis is on her way to a nomination, but a win isn't going to happen as of now.
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
In many critic's opinion, Cotillard is the finest actress in the business today, winning Best Actress back in 2008. She has turned in another worthy performance, and with this weak field, I think she'll be able to sneak in on name status alone.
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
I really don't know who will get this last spot. Watts was just the one I felt like putting there today.
Next in Line
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Kiera Knightley, Anna Karenina
10. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Possible Spoilers
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Elle Fanning, Ginger and Rosa
Best Supporting Actor
This year's field of nominees is so exciting because you have veteran actors who have taken supporting roles and delivered the goods. Most of the actors are used to being the star, but these performances proved that they can do anything asked of them, furthur asserting themselves as Hollywood's best.
The Field
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Unlike his counterpart Phoenix, Hoffman has kept his mouth shut about the Oscars, and the result is frontrunner status. His role is the steady force behind The Master and that fact alone should give Hoffman a legit shot at receiving his fourth nomination and maybe his second win.
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
We all knew that Jones would be good in Lincoln. Nobody expected him to be this good. He's a straight-up scene stealer, and he has scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis! Hoffman, though, had such a big lead to begin with that Jones is going to have to pick up some steam before I'm able to put him on top, but it's definitely in the picture of that happening.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
It's one of Hollywood's biggest disgraces: Leonardo DiCaprio is Oscar-less. He's been nominated for three Oscars, but he's never been able to give a speech come Oscar night. But that could change this year with his supporting turn in Django Unchained. I know nothing about the quality of this movie yet. I'm going strictly based off the description of DiCaprio's role and my gut instinct. If it's good, we'll have a challenger to Hoffman and Jones.
4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro has been around the block a few times before, receiving six Oscar nominations with two of those resulting in wins. The first nominations came way back in 1975 when he won the Oscar for, coincidently, Best Supporting Actor in The Godfather Part II. His other five nominations have come in the lead category, so this is the first time since then that the Academy is likely to nominate the veteran for a supporting turn. As long as Playbook remains hot, De Niro will be in the chase.
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
This might be wishful thinking, but I believe Les Mis will be a major contender in all these categories. Therefore, Crowe or Eddie Redmayne would have to represent it in this category. Crowe is not a newcomer like Redmayne, though. The Academy has given Crowe three nominations including a win for his role in Gladiator. If Les Mis's momentum continues to pick up, one of these two should be able to sneak in. Right now, my money's on Crowe.
Next in Line
6. Alan Arkin, Argo
7. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
9. William H. Macy, The Sessions
Possible Spoilers
John Goodman, Argo or Flight
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actress
If what I'm reading is true, this race is over. Anne Hathaway, for her role as Fantine in Les Miserables, should start writing her acceptance speech now. However, a few actresses might have something to say about that.
The Field
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
I've been loving on Les Mis everywhere, but this is the first time that we find it on top. Everything that I've been hearing about this movie is spectacular, but one thing also stands out, and that's the consensus love for Hathaway. I have yet to read something that doesn't say Hathaway is the clear frontrunner here. The fact that it just premiered helps too because not a lot of people has seen this movie, allowing Hathaway and her co-stars to gain some precious momentum.
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
In the 1980's, Field could do no wrong in the Academy's eye, receiving two nominations and two wins. But Field never got back into the Oscar's graces since then. Now, she's back and Hathaway's biggest competition. It's not easy sharing a stage with Daniel Day-Lewis, but Field does it in many scenes and stands her ground. When you can do that, you deserve a nomination.
3. Amy Adams, The Master
The current Oscar darling is Amy Adams as she has received three nominations in just six years. This year, she should get nomination number four. The Master is a force to be reckoned with in its respected acting fields, and Adams is its female representative. A win will be tough considered who's ahead of her, but a nomination should come.
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
The Sessions reminds me a lot of last year's My Week with Marilyn, a movie that gets a couple acting nominations but never contends for the big prizes. Hunt and John Hawkes should be able to muster nominations, but wins for these two are not going to happen unless a miracle occurs.
5. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
I believe one of Hathaway's co-stars, whether it be Barks, Amanda Seyfried, or Helena Bonham Carter, is going to join her in this field. Right now, everything I've read says it's Barks. She's also helped out by the fact that there's really no other actress coming up and earning her slot in the field. Unless someone does just that, Barks could give Les Mis its second Best Supporting Actress nom.
Next in Line
6. Amanda Seyfried, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Les Miserables
9. Judi Dench, Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Frances McDormand, Promised Land
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Kelly Reilly, Flight
There you have it! My first Oscar predictions of the season! Obviously, these will change, but I do think this isn't a bad start. Stay tune for some updates along the way.....
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