Oscar season is about to get in full swing as the precusor season is almost ready to kickoff. The precursor season is simply the time leading up to the Oscars that determines who will gain momentum and pick up an Oscar nomination. Various critic companies around the country, such as the New York Film Critics, will give out awards just like the Oscars would. A very common, and most recognizable, precursor awards show is the Golden Globes. As these precursors give out their awards, it dictates what we can expect when the Oscar nominations are announced. That's why it's so vital to pay attention to the precursor because it will give us an inside track to the Oscars.
We continue our Oscar predictions today by taking a look at the Best Animated Feature and Visual Effects category.
Best Animated Feature
While many races still have a lot of unanswered questions, Best Animated Feature does not. All the films that will be under consideration by the Academy to land a nomination have already been released. The field might change in the coming weeks, but the batch of movies won't. This is our first prediction that can very easily be the same prediction we have on our last predictions right before the announcement.
The Field
1. Wreck-It Ralph
Wreck-It Ralph has always been on the radar to be a contender if for no other reason than it looked good and Disney was behind it. But hardly anyone, including me, expected it to assume the title of frontrunner. Featuring the talented voice work of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, and Jane Lynch, Wreck-It Ralph has immediately become an instant Disney classic, and when a movie can obtain that status, it deserves to be a frontrunner. Throw in the fact that it is currently on one of the best box office runs of the year, meaning a lot of folks have seen it, and it's Wreck-It Ralph's race to lose. If it does win, Wreck-It Ralph will be the first time a Disney Animated Studios film has won this category without the help of Pixar, and speaking of Pixar......
2. Brave
Pixar's twelfth movie was the frontrunner at the beginning of the race, and it remains near the top as we enter heart of the awards season. With the help of Kelly Macdonald, Billy Connolly, and Emma Thompson, Pixar was able to produce yet another classic movie. While considered a step down from other Pixar greats, such as Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 (both previous Best Animated Feature winners), Brave should have no problem securing a spot in the field.
3. Frankenweenie
And Disney makes it a trifecta! Three Disney films hold the top three spots in the field right now, and rightfully so. Tim Burton's stop-motion adaption was probably the most well-received among critics of the three, boasting an 89% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it also boasts the weakest box office, grossing only $34 million compared to Brave's $237 million and Wreck-It Ralph's $153 million and counting. More people have seen the first two, and I think that momentum will end up costing Frankenweenie the victory.
4. Rise of the Guardians
Going into the year, if Brave wasn't going to win, many people had their eye on Rise of the Guardians, the next animated feature from the studio that gave us How to Train Your Dragon. The pedigree was there for Rise to be a legit contender: a proven studio with a heart-warming story backed by an extremely talented vocal cast (Hugh Jackman is the Easter Bunny). However, when it debuted over Thanksgiving, the word on the movie wasn't as enthusiastic as anticipated. Couple that with a lackluster box office performance thus far, and I think Rise is out of the race for a win.
5. ParaNorman
A film that fell under the radar upon its release, ParaNorman was loved by critics and audiences alike. With a surprisingly solid story and fantastic stop-motion from the creators of Coraline (a nominee in 2010's field), ParaNorman was, at the time, consider a threat to win this category. However, the box office disappointed, grossing only $56 million. A win is out of the question, but a nomination is actually tangible thanks to a weak field behind it.
Next in Line
6. The Painting
7. From Up on Poppy Hill
8. A Liar's Autobiography - The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
9. Hotel Transylvania
10. Dr. Suess' The Lorax
Spoilers
Ice Age: Continental Drift
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
The Pirates: Band of Misfits
Best Visual Effects
My first technical category prediction comes in the Best Visual Effects category. This category has always been a fun one to predict because it's the only category that being a blockbuster helps your case. Every movie on this list has been seen by the public, separating itself from the rest of the categories. Earlier this week, the Academy announced ten movies will have the shot at getting in this field. As I will with every technical category, I won't give analysis, just a prediction.
The Field
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Cloud Atlas
Next in Line
The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
John Carter
Spoilers
Snow White and the Huntsman
The Amazing Spiderman
Oscar season will heat up here in the next few weeks, so pay attention because my predictions will change weekly as the precursors begin to roll out. But for now, here's where we stand.
Enjoy the race!
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