Right around this time every year, the Oscar race heats up as nominees begin to either lock down their spots or lose their spots. Precursor season is in full swing with the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden, the two most prestigious awards after the Oscars, announcing their nominations. Both awards are very telling of what will happen come Oscar time, so momentum either went sky high for some nominees or has now hit rock bottom.
Best Picture
This year's race is, no doubt about it, one of the most exciting races in Oscar history. With the developments that have taken place over the last few weeks, four films have a legitimate shot at taking home the Oscar. Last time, I predicting seven nominees, and this time, I'm sticking to it.
The Field
1. Lincoln
The clear-cut frontrunner at the moment is Steven Spielberg's best film yet, Lincoln. Carried by the three powerhouse performances of Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, Spielberg was able to create one of the most fascinating movies of the twenty-first century, and the precursors have taken notice. Lincoln earned seven Golden Globe noms, the leader of the pack and a new Spielberg record, and also earned four nominations from the SAG. No film has been able to leapfrog over Lincoln, and with no other films left to debut, Lincoln could easily ride its momentum and take home the Oscar.
2. Les Miserables
While more divisive among critics than I would like to see, Les Mis is still my number two solely based on the fact that I am not underestimating the power of the people. Les Mis has yet to debut in the US, and my theory is as more and more people watch this film, the box office will, obviously, boom, but it will also attract the attention of the Academy, who isn't against going with a more popular film every now and then. A few films are hot on its heels, but Les Mis scored four nominations from both the Globes and SAG, securing its #2 spot.
3. Zero Dark Thirty
After one week of precursors, it looked like Zero Dark Thirty would become the frontrunner and ride the momentum to Oscar gold. Then the SAG and Globe nominations came, where it managed four Globes noms, but only one SAG nom. The SAG's equivalent Best Picture Award is Best Cast Ensemble. Thirty didn't get nominated for Best Cast Ensemble. No film since Braveheart did it back in 1996 has won Best Picture without getting the SAG's Best Cast Ensemble. Now, that could merely be a bump in the road, but Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Argo were both nominated for Best Cast Ensemble. Zero Dark Thirty is definitely going to be a heavy hitter this season, but hold off on the frontrunner status for now.
4. Argo
It's extremely difficult to kick off the season as the frontrunner and maintain that status until the bitter end, but that was the task set before Ben Affleck's Argo. When it debuted in October, there was no question that Argo would win Best Director for Affleck and be the clear frontrunner here. Unfortunately for Argo, no one anticipated a race quite like this one. While Argo should have no problem managing a nomination here, a SAG win in Cast Ensemble and Globe win for Best Picture- Drama looks to be needed if frontrunner status wants to be retained.
5. Silver Linings Playbook
Another film suffering through the same dilemma as Argo is Silver Linings Playbook. While the backing is there for the actors, the backing just doesn't seem to be there for the film as a whole. Although it did manage four SAG noms and five Globe noms, I just have a feeling that, in a race like this one, the Academy isn't going to give their top honor to a comedy. A couple of SAG and Globe wins will help, but looking at the four films above it, I simply don't see Playbook making the final push that's necessary.
6. Life of Pi
Ang Lee's visual wonder Life of Pi has, quite frankly, zero chance of winning here (the same applies for the remaining one as well). A nomination should be coming, however, especially after managing three Globe nominations. While I, personally, cite Life of Pi as one of the best films of the year, it's not something the Academy is going to go for, especially, once again, in a race like this one.
7. Django Unchained
One film picking up some steam and making an impressive final push is Django Unchained. The last major contender to debut, Django, for the most part, has not disappointed, especially on the acting side of things. Four Globes nominations don't hurt whatsoever, but it looks like it will be too little, too late.
Next in Line
8. The Master
9. Amour
10. Moonrise Kingdom
Possible Spoilers
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Best Director
Nothing new here. Rearranging has occured, but the same five directors from last time remain.
The Field
1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
I firmly, and with no apologies, believe that Lincoln is Spielberg's best work to date, and considering the body of work that he has put out there, that's an extremely powerful statement when you think about. He does what separates the great directors from the good directors: he allows the actors to shine. That's a risk, no question about it, but when the actors do indeed shine, the result is magnificent, and Lincoln is absolutely magnificent.
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
It was a big deal in 2010 when Bigelow became the first woman in Oscar history to win Best Director. Can you imagine the hysteria that will follow if she wins again? I wrote in my last predictions that as Zero Dark Thirty's momentum goes, Bigelow's momentum goes. The momentum for this movie is out of this world right now, and as long as that's the case, Bigelow will pose the biggest threat to Spielberg, but not to be counted out.....
3. Ben Affleck, Argo
....is Ben Affleck for Argo. Essentially, in my book, Bigelow and Affleck are tied right now, but I gave Bigelow the edge today because her film's momentum is greater than Affleck's. However, I fimly believe that the Academy has not forgotten what Affleck has done here directing one of the top ten best movies of the year. They also love a good comeback story, and Affleck is comeback personified. If he can win the Globe, watch out Spielberg.
4. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
It would take a very unintelligent and untalented human being to not make Les Mis an Oscar contender. Hooper, from what I read, goes big with this film, and while that sounds good on the surface, some critics are hammering him for it. That being said, I currently have Les Mis receiving double digit nominations, and if that's the case, I find it hard to believe that Hooper will walk away without one of those. But he did miss out on the Globe. A Directors Guild Award would do wonders for him.
5. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Ang Lee is, unquestionably, one of the finest filmmakers around, and he proved it with Life of Pi. But looking at who is ahead of him, he's not winning. A nominations should be in order, especially after the Globe nomination, but a win is beginning to look out of the question.
Next in Line
6. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
7. Michael Haneke, Amour
8. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Possible Spoilers
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor
Six actors have a legitimate case for a nomination here, but only five spots are available.
The Field
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
On my last predictions, I said that this was the most competitive category of the year. The more and more I think about it, though, the more and more I feel that it's already over, and Daniel Day-Lewis is your winner. Unless something drastic happens in the next few weeks, he will be. His performance is, by far, one of the best performances I have ever had the honor of watching as he embodies an American legend with so much ease that it should be illegal to act that well. He's fantastic, and the Academy should reward him with his third Oscar.
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
It takes a special talent to bring a character like Jean Valjean to life, and Hugh Jackman fits the part like a glove from what I've seen. With Les Mis set to be a heavy hitter this season, I find it hard to believe that the Academy won't recognize its leading man. It also doesn't hurt that the other nominees are inconsistent at the moment. Jackman is also considered one of the best Oscar hosts of the twenty-first century, and don't think that the Academy has forgotten that. They might want to reward him for that as well. Getting a SAG and Globe nomination doesn't hurt.
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
With the storyline and character that was given to Washington, the Oscar nomination for Washington was already basically in the bag. A win would take some work, though, especially in this race. Washington turned in one of his finest performances of his illustrious career, securing that his name will be called on January 10. He also managed a SAG and Globe nom, a very good sign for Washington.
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
Supporters of this film have expressed concern that a film like The Sessions would get lost in such a heated race, causing its actors to also get lost. However, Hawkes was able to pull through in a big way with a SAG and Globe nomination. Coupled with the fact that Joaquin Phoenix is slipping by the second, Hawkes should be able to squeak out a nom after all.
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
When The Master debuted back in September, Phoenix was christened the favorite to win it all. Then Phoenix started talking about the awards circuit being complete BS, and the Academy, along with critic companies around, have started to listen, culminating in a SAG snub. He was able to manage a Globe nomination, though, which is able to keep him in the field for now, but a win is all but out of the question now.
Next in Line
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Possible Spoilers
Jaime Foxx, Django Unchained
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Best Actress
The two-horse race continues, and I still don't know who deserves the remaining three spots.
The Field
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Lawrence has been able to hold off Jessica Chastain's initial emergence into the frontrunner converstaion, and for that reason, she stays number one for now. She is one of the finest young actresses in the business, and I think the Academy is ready to reward her for it.
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Something tells me that this won't be the last time these two are nominated for Oscars. Lawrence and Chastain are here to stay, and it's kind of appropriate that they will be battling it out all season long. Both are deserving. Who knows who will win?!
3. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
There's a huuuuuuuge gap between Chastain and Lawrence and the rest of the field. The winner will be one of those two. The remaining three will have to settle for nominations. Cotillard scored a SAG and Globe nomination, so there's no reason to believe that she won't add Oscar nom to that list.
4. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Watts also managed to score a SAG and Globe nomination, so she's in.
5. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Helen Mirren is a living legend. She managed a SAG and Globe nom as well. All signs point to yet another nomination coming Mirren's way.
Next in Line
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Possible Spoilers
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Kiera Knightley, Anna Karenina
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Best Supporting Actor
It seems like I'm changing my order of these actors hourly. In my opinion, eight nominees have a strong case to get a nomination, but only five spots are given out.
The Field
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
After a stellar start to his own campaign and Philip Seymour Hoffman stumbling out of the gate, the veteran Jones has seized the top spot. Jones is an absolute scene stealer in Lincoln and definitely deserves not only a nomination, but a win. As long as Lincoln is on top, and I anticipate it being on top for the whole season through, Jones will also be on top.
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Earlier in the season, it seemed that Hoffman had this category wrapped around his finger. Since then, though, The Master has stumbled mightily, and as a result, Hoffman's sure-fire win has been downgraded to just a sure-fire nominee. Although his co-stars, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams, were snubbed by the SAG, Hoffman broke through at both the SAG and Globes. A nomination should be coming, but now, Hoffman is playing catch-up.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
As I stated last time, DiCaprio needs an Oscar. He deserves one more than anyone else in the business. His role in Django is perfect for the Academy to recognize. If Django can pick up some steam as its release appoaches on Christmas Day, DiCaprio, along with co-star Christoph Waltz, can make a run at Jones and Hoffman.
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
If a film wants to be taken as a serious threat to win Best Picture, it needs an acting representative. Argo's rep is Arkin. He managed to work his way back into the field after being forgotten for a while after his SAG and Globe nominations, and I fully expect him to hold on and get into the field.
5. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro could very easily be on the Mount Rushmore of actors, and this performance only supports that claim. His name alone should keep him in the field, but his performance will have to be fabulous in order to jump over the four in front of him.
Next in Line
6. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
7. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
8. Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Best Supporting Actress
This race is over because....
The Field
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
...Anne Hathaway hits a grand slam in Les Miserables. My only question at this point is how good will Hathaway's speech be?
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
There's other people in this category? Although this is Hathaway's victory, four more actresses will receive nominations. Sally Field hasn't been in the Academy's graces since the 1980's, but she's back and better than ever in Lincoln. In normal years, Field would be a favorite, but in normal years, you don't have Anne Hathaway singing "I Dreamed A Dream."
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Helen Hunt joined co-star John Hawkes on having a big couple of days, scoring SAG and Globes nominations. These two nominations alone should be enough to secure Hunt's spot in the field.
4. Amy Adams, The Master
Amy Adams is, undoubtedly, one of the greatest living actresses in the business already, and the Academy should recognize her with a nomination for the fourth time in her career. She did miss out on the SAG, though, but came back with a Globe nom. Hunt got both, giving her the upper hand, but both are pretty even.
5. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
This movie as a whole is making a small comeback after being dead in the race for quite some time. The actress benefiting the most from the resurgence is Maggie Smith, who is taking advantage of a weak field at the bottom. She was able to score a SAG nomination, and if you couple that with the fact that nobody has really stepped up below her, Smith is in.
Next in Line
6. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
7. Judi Dench, Skyfall
8. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
9. Ann Dowd, Compliance
Possible Spoilers
Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Kelly Reilly, Flight
The race is getting intense. The questions are starting to get answered as our vision gets a whole lot clearer. However, the Academy won't announce its nominations until January 10, so the race is far from over. A lot can still change, and in the movie industry....
Change is exciting!
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