The day has finally come where I get to make my first Oscar predictions of the season. Now, obviously, these predictions probably won't be the same predictions that I make a few days before the nominations are announced. But that's the beauty of the Oscars. Everyone on this list, whether in the field at the moment or not, is worthy and has given us something that we'll never forget. Predictions might change, but nothing will change the fact that these actors and pictures are the best Hollywood has to offer.
I'm only going to predict the main six categories: picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress. I'll give you who I think is in and why, the "next-in-line" contenders (movies/actors that aren't in, but could be down the road), and the possible spoilers (movies/actors that probably won't get nominated, but you never know).
Best Picture
Every since 2010, the Best Picture race has been very unique, but also very confusing. Up to 2008, there was only 5 nominees, no exceptions. However, in 2008, The Dark Knight was snubbed a nomination, causing the everyday fans to cry out to the Academy to give them movies that they have actually watched. The Academy listened, and expanded the field to 10 nominees for the 2010 and 2011 Oscars. But after the 2011 show, they changed it again, saying that there could be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations. For the 2012 Oscars, we got 9 nominations. Nothing has changed this year, so those rules apply to this year, making it extremely difficult to predict. Luckily, there are numerous worthy films out there. Right now, I have seven films in the field.
The Field
1. Lincoln
When people started looking at this year's race, it would be crazy for people not to look at Steven Spielberg's biopic. However, being the frontrunner that far out could lead to insurmounatble expectations. Those expectations were there for Lincoln, and it went above and beyond those expectations, giving us a truly great American film. The stars shine brighest, led by TIME's greatest living actor on the planet, Daniel Day-Lewis, and supported tremendously by Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones. If you haven't see Lincoln yet, you need to because you'll be hearing its name all season and especially come Oscar Sunday.
2. Les Miserables
As I am writing this, Les Mis has just been screened for an audience in New York. After the film was done, according to reports, a raucous standing ovation followed with tears falling from the eyes of the audience members. After every main musical number, applause followed. And just like that, Les Mis is a top-tier contender. Everything I've read about the screening says that virtually everyone left feeling the same way: awestruck. The movie apparently captures the raw emotion of the musical stage adaption and the actors give career best performances. I thought all along that Les Mis would be a contender, but I might be wrong. It might be the winner.
3. Argo
The film that essentially kicked off the Oscar season was Ben Affleck's Argo. Affleck has directed some high quality movies such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town, but when the nominations were announced in those movie's years, the films and Affleck were ignored (both only receiving 1 nomination). With Argo, though, Affleck finally has a film that the Academy has no choice but pay attention to. By far his best effort, Affleck is able to turn a story that could have gone to the boring side easily and turned it into one of the year's best. With the help of a cast led by Affleck himself and Oscar turns for Alan Arkin and veteran John Goodman, watch out for Argo.
4. Silver Linings Playbook
When Silver Linings Playbook debuted at the Toronto Film Festival earlier in the season, a moderate contender quickly became a force to be reckoned with, with some predictions putting it as the film to beat. Unfortunately, that was before Lincoln and Les Miserables had debuted. That being said, Playbook is still very much in the race. Silver Linings Playbook reminds me of director David O. Russell's last project, The Fighter, when it comes to Oscar contention. The Fighter was able to muster seven nominations, including Best Picture and Director, but only managed two wins in Supporting Actor and Actress. That's my feel, at the moment, for Silver Linings Playbook: heavy contender in the acting categories, but missing out on the big prizes.
5. Life of Pi
The past few years, a family movie has been able to sneak in to the Best Picture field. In 2010, Up received a nomination with Toy Story 3 following in 2011 and Hugo in 2012. 2013's entry is Life of Pi. Director Ang Lee is behind the camera of this movie, and he is an Academy favorite, directing Brokeback Mountain to 8 nominations and 3 wins. This is the first film since Brokeback that the Academy will feel comfortable recognizing Lee's work. Having no animated movies in contention here also helps Pi's chances. It would take a miracle for Life of Pi to get a win here, but a nomination is likely.
6. Zero Dark Thirty
The more and more I think about Zero Dark Thirty and its Oscar prosepcts, the more and more I feel confident that Kathyrn Bigelow is directed her second Best Picture nomination. Obviously, a lot can change with the movie considering nobody has seen it yet. However, all signs point to this one being a serious contender, so until I hear differently, it'll be in the field.
7. The Master
Director Paul Thomas Anderson has had quite an illustrious career, giving us such classics as There Will Be Blood and Magnolia. Rightfully so, expectations were high for The Master starring Oscar hopefuls Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams. When the film was released in September, however, the reviews were divisive, leaving some mesmorized and some unfulfilled. That's never good for an Oscar contender because that is also how the Academy probably feels. Regardless, I expect The Master to hold on, just barely holding off the next in line contenders.
Next in Line
8. Amour
9. Beast of the Southern Wild
10. Django Unchained
11. Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Best Director
This year's Best Director field makes it really easy for people who love movies to get excited about because you have some of the industry's best going up against the best. As will be the case in a few of these categories, some very worthy directors will be left out of the field, which also means that whoever does indeed get nominated has a legit shot at actually winning.
The Field
1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Steven Spielberg is, unquestionably, one of the finest directors Hollywood has ever seen, and the Academy has taken notice over the years, gracing him with 6 Best Director nominations and 2 wins for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. However, taking away his nomination for Munich in 2006, he hasn't received a nomination since Saving Private Ryan back in 1999. The Academy is desperately waiting on the chance to recognize after last year's War Horse failed to live up to expectations. This year is his year.
2. Ben Affleck, Argo
As I wrote in Argo's Best Picture analysis, this is Affleck career best in any field of business, whether it be acting or directing. As long as Argo is contending, Affleck will be contending. It's time for the Academy to recognize one of Hollywood's most talented up and coming directors, and Affleck will reap those demands.
3. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
In 2011, some unknown director named Tom Hooper came in and won Best Director for his Best Picture-winning film, The King's Speech. But anyone can make one fantastic movie. The challenge is making two, and Hooper has done it with Les Mis. I read an article that said that Les Mis is so good that it would not surprise a soul in Hollywood if Hooper joined the ranks of the immortal and won his second Oscar. The momentum for this movie needs to be tremendous, though, if he wants to push beyond Spielberg and Affleck. But you got to start somewhere.
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Life of Pi continues to remind me of last year's Hugo: a family-friendly movie released over Thanksgiving that is visually stunning with no stars but an Oscar-winning director behind the camera. If that comparison holds true, Lee will get his third nomination unless someone below him picks up some serious steam.
5. Kathyrn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
As the movie's momentum goes, Bigelow goes, and at the moment, the momentum is high, allowing Bigelow to sneak into the field. As I mentioned before, a lot of unanswered questions are out there still on the film. If it's good, Bigelow could join Hooper as the shockers of the season. If it's not good, Bigelow won't be able to hold on.
Next in Line
6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
8. Michael Haneke, Amour
9. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Possible Spoilers
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Sam Mendes, Skyfall
Gus Van Sant, Promised Land
Robert Zemeckis, Flight
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor
Of all the categories this year, this one is the most competitive. Some possible nominees that would be frontrunners in other years won't even get in the field. Unlike any category, every single nominee can easily pull out a win.
The Field
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Noticing a trend? Lincoln is a major contender, and you can say the reason for that is because of what Daniel Day-Lewis did, giving us an unforgetable performance as our sixteenth president. With a figure so revered and iconic, Steven Spielberg needed a special actor that would be completely devoted to the character. Saying he hit a homerun with Day-Lewis is quite the understatement. Day-Lewis is considered the industry's greatest living actor, and the fact that some are calling this performance his best is a bold statement. That fact alone will get him his fifth nomination and quite possibly his third win.
2. Denzel Washington, Flight
Who doesn't love Washington? It seems like every movie that he is in is top-notch and something you'll be talking about the rest of the year, and the Academy agrees, giving Denzel 5 nominations over his career with 2 wins. But he hasn't been recognized since 2002, so you better believe that the Academy is chopping at the bit to give him another nomination. A win is a little more difficult because Day-Lewis is ahead of you, but if anyone can dethrone the king, it's Washington.
3. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
I haven't seen The Master myself, but what I've heard about Phoenix's performance is pretty consistent in saying that it's awesome. However, I've also read some of Phoenix's comments about the Oscars, saying that the whole Oscar experience is "BS." Some people dismissed these comments, but I'm not underestimating the effect that these comments will have on the Academy, a very prideful bunch. Phoenix should be able to muster a nomination, but a win is more difficult.
4. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Whenever an actor experiences physical changes to suit a role, the Academy notices. Jackman loss 30 pounds for just the opening minutes of the film, only to gain it back to look like Jean Valjean for the rest of the film. As I watched the stage show, I left feeling that Jackman was absolutely perfect for the part given his experience on Broadway. His role is just too tailor-made for the Academy to ignore.
5. John Hawkes, The Sessions
In a year as competitive as this one, it's difficult for a movie like The Sessions to get any traction in the races. However, what I've heard about Hawkes' performance is that it's pretty stellar and definitely worthy of being next to the first four veterans. If he campaigns hard enough, he should sneak in to the field, but a win is probably not going to happen.
Next in Line
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
8. Richard Gere, Arbitrage
9. Jean-Louis Trintigant, Amour
Possible Spoilers
Ben Affleck, Argo
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Jaime Foxx, Django Unchained
Best Actress
We've gone from the most competitive category of the year to the least competitive category of the year. No disrespect to the ladies in the field at the moment, but only two actresses have a legitimate shot of winning this one, with the other three nominees just happy to be nominated.
The Field
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
The part of Silver Linings Playbook that benefited the most from the buzz after the Toronto Film Festival is Jennifer Lawrence, who went from possible nominee to clear-cut frontrunner. With already one Oscar nomination under her belt for 2010's Winter's Bone and, of course, The Hunger Games franchsie, Lawrence is quickly becoming one of Hollywood's finest actresses, and she, barring a career-defining performance from Jessica Chastain, will take step one to becoming one of Hollywood's elites in February: winning an Oscar.
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Last year, Chastain might have had the best year an actress has ever had, going from absolute no one to Oscar nominee with her turn in The Help. This year, she's back and is likely the only legit challenger to Lawrence. All signs point to Chastain given the opportunity to shine, and if Zero Dark Thirty is as good as anticipated, we'll have a race on our hands.
3. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Coming in at only nine years old, Wallis will easily be the youngest Oscar nominee, and she is reaping the benefits of a weak field. In most years, the Academy wouldn't dare nominate someone so young, but combine the fact that Wallis gives an impressive performance with a weak field and Wallis is on her way to a nomination, but a win isn't going to happen as of now.
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
In many critic's opinion, Cotillard is the finest actress in the business today, winning Best Actress back in 2008. She has turned in another worthy performance, and with this weak field, I think she'll be able to sneak in on name status alone.
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
I really don't know who will get this last spot. Watts was just the one I felt like putting there today.
Next in Line
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Kiera Knightley, Anna Karenina
10. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Possible Spoilers
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Elle Fanning, Ginger and Rosa
Best Supporting Actor
This year's field of nominees is so exciting because you have veteran actors who have taken supporting roles and delivered the goods. Most of the actors are used to being the star, but these performances proved that they can do anything asked of them, furthur asserting themselves as Hollywood's best.
The Field
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Unlike his counterpart Phoenix, Hoffman has kept his mouth shut about the Oscars, and the result is frontrunner status. His role is the steady force behind The Master and that fact alone should give Hoffman a legit shot at receiving his fourth nomination and maybe his second win.
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
We all knew that Jones would be good in Lincoln. Nobody expected him to be this good. He's a straight-up scene stealer, and he has scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis! Hoffman, though, had such a big lead to begin with that Jones is going to have to pick up some steam before I'm able to put him on top, but it's definitely in the picture of that happening.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
It's one of Hollywood's biggest disgraces: Leonardo DiCaprio is Oscar-less. He's been nominated for three Oscars, but he's never been able to give a speech come Oscar night. But that could change this year with his supporting turn in Django Unchained. I know nothing about the quality of this movie yet. I'm going strictly based off the description of DiCaprio's role and my gut instinct. If it's good, we'll have a challenger to Hoffman and Jones.
4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro has been around the block a few times before, receiving six Oscar nominations with two of those resulting in wins. The first nominations came way back in 1975 when he won the Oscar for, coincidently, Best Supporting Actor in The Godfather Part II. His other five nominations have come in the lead category, so this is the first time since then that the Academy is likely to nominate the veteran for a supporting turn. As long as Playbook remains hot, De Niro will be in the chase.
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
This might be wishful thinking, but I believe Les Mis will be a major contender in all these categories. Therefore, Crowe or Eddie Redmayne would have to represent it in this category. Crowe is not a newcomer like Redmayne, though. The Academy has given Crowe three nominations including a win for his role in Gladiator. If Les Mis's momentum continues to pick up, one of these two should be able to sneak in. Right now, my money's on Crowe.
Next in Line
6. Alan Arkin, Argo
7. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
9. William H. Macy, The Sessions
Possible Spoilers
John Goodman, Argo or Flight
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Best Supporting Actress
If what I'm reading is true, this race is over. Anne Hathaway, for her role as Fantine in Les Miserables, should start writing her acceptance speech now. However, a few actresses might have something to say about that.
The Field
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
I've been loving on Les Mis everywhere, but this is the first time that we find it on top. Everything that I've been hearing about this movie is spectacular, but one thing also stands out, and that's the consensus love for Hathaway. I have yet to read something that doesn't say Hathaway is the clear frontrunner here. The fact that it just premiered helps too because not a lot of people has seen this movie, allowing Hathaway and her co-stars to gain some precious momentum.
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
In the 1980's, Field could do no wrong in the Academy's eye, receiving two nominations and two wins. But Field never got back into the Oscar's graces since then. Now, she's back and Hathaway's biggest competition. It's not easy sharing a stage with Daniel Day-Lewis, but Field does it in many scenes and stands her ground. When you can do that, you deserve a nomination.
3. Amy Adams, The Master
The current Oscar darling is Amy Adams as she has received three nominations in just six years. This year, she should get nomination number four. The Master is a force to be reckoned with in its respected acting fields, and Adams is its female representative. A win will be tough considered who's ahead of her, but a nomination should come.
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
The Sessions reminds me a lot of last year's My Week with Marilyn, a movie that gets a couple acting nominations but never contends for the big prizes. Hunt and John Hawkes should be able to muster nominations, but wins for these two are not going to happen unless a miracle occurs.
5. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
I believe one of Hathaway's co-stars, whether it be Barks, Amanda Seyfried, or Helena Bonham Carter, is going to join her in this field. Right now, everything I've read says it's Barks. She's also helped out by the fact that there's really no other actress coming up and earning her slot in the field. Unless someone does just that, Barks could give Les Mis its second Best Supporting Actress nom.
Next in Line
6. Amanda Seyfried, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Les Miserables
9. Judi Dench, Skyfall
Possible Spoilers
Frances McDormand, Promised Land
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Kelly Reilly, Flight
There you have it! My first Oscar predictions of the season! Obviously, these will change, but I do think this isn't a bad start. Stay tune for some updates along the way.....
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Not So Fast: 4 Movies That Could Change the Oscar Race
It truly is the most wonderful time of the year. Everyone gathers together to spend some quality time with friends and family to celebrate what we really are thankful for as we enjoy the festivities of the holiday season.
It's also the most wonderful time of the year for a movie fan because it's Oscar season, and when Oscar season rolls around, film companies put their best movies forward in hopes of wooing the voters to give them the gold statue come February.
By this time, we usually have a pretty good grasp on what movies we can expect to be there in the end. Movies that we anticipated being in the race are very much there. Since the announcement of its production, Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, has been christened a frontrunner, and it hasn't disappointed. It has maintained that frontrunner status in Best Picture, Actor, and Director, with nominations certainly to come in Supporting Actor and Actress. Ben Affleck has had quite an interesting career, evolving from his Daredevil acting days to directing very high quality film such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town. However, the Oscars have all but ignored his talents. That will all change this year thanks to Argo, the biggest challenger at the moment to Lincoln. David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook will definitely be a contender thanks to its fantastic performances. Other films, such as Life of Pi, The Master, and Amour, will also be in the thick of things.
However, the Oscar race is by no means set in stone quite yet. I look at five movies that have yet to be released yet that can cause some chaos in the race.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Lord of the Rings franchise is one of the most popular franchises worldwide, but unlike its franchise counterparts, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings have been recognized by the Academy Awards on multiple occasions. The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for twelve Oscars including four wins. The Two Towers got six nominations and two victories. The Return of the King was given the most love from the Academy, receiving eleven nominations and eleven wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. To say the bar has been set high for The Hobbit franchise is quite an understatement.
What's Going For It:
Everything that I just mentioned works in its favorite. The Academy is a fan of the Peter Jackson franchise. Why wouldn't they want to nominate it again if it's good enough? Another thing is that this could be the only fanboy favorite that has a legit shot of getting some nominations. Movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers had high hopes of shocking the world and getting a Best Picture nomination, but those scenarios never panned out. The Dark Knight Rises had obvious aspirations of Oscars, but its momentum is all but gone. That leaves The Hobbit to represent the everyday fan at the Oscars. The Academy, in recent years, have expressed interest in improving their ratings by getting those necessary movies into the field. That was the main reason why the expanded the Best Picture field from five movies to ten movies after The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. The Hobbit would certainly cause some younger audience members to tune in in February.
What's Going Against It:
Tough competition. Every category this year is highly competitive (outside of Best Actress, a category The Hobbit can't even be considered for anyway). It would have to do the unthinkable and surpass everyone's expectations and be significantly better than the original trilogy. I simply don't see that happening. The trailers give us the "been there, done that" feel, which is fine for fans, but that won't cut it for the Academy.
What to Expect:
Technical categories (i.e. Best Production Design and Best Makeup)
2. Django Unchained
When movie buffs think of the greatest directors of all-time, Quentin Tarantino is in the conversation. It seems that every movie that he puts out there is an instant cult-classic, and Django Unchained has all the makings of doing just that, boasting a stellar cast led by Christoph Waltz and Jaime Foxx with Leonardo Dicaprio as the villain.
What's Going For It:
The Academy can be a pretty big fan of Tarantino's work, giving Q four nominations with one win over the span of his career. When a movie has a cast such as this one, the acting can carry it to some Oscar love (check out The Help). It's being released on Christmas Day, a coveted spot for Oscar hopefuls, which leads me to believe that the people behind this movie has faith in it.
What's Going Against It:
As was the case for The Hobbit, tough competiton looms. However, Django Unchained has internal competition as well. Everyone expected Jaime Foxx to be a candidate for Best Actor, but earlier this month, it was announced that Christoph Waltz would also be campaigned for a Best Actor nomination instead of a Best Supporting Actor. That brings up the problem of split-voting, where voters will have to choose between Foxx and Waltz instead of the movie having just one candidate to compete with everyone else instead of competing with themselves. Same situation for Best Supporting Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is long overdue an Oscar, but early word is that Samuel L. Jackson could be the better candidate. This year makes it difficult enough to compete with other movies. You simply can't have internal competition in a race like this.
What to Expect:
Competing for Best Actor and Supporting Actress but falling short
Just sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor field
3. Les Miserables
What happens when you tell me that the most beloved musical of all-time has cast Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Russell Crowe to bring an extremely powerful story to life? I would tell you that you had a serious Oscar contender on your hands, and that's what I fully expect Les Mis to be.
What's Going For It:
Tom Hooper is the director, and this is his follow-up to 2010's The King's Speech, which was nominated for twelve Oscars also receiving four wins, including Best Picture, Actor, and, of course, Director. Hooper's name is definitely in the minds of the voters, and he's very popular in their eyes. He's been given one of the most cherished pieces of literature ever written. If anyone around today can pull this off, I believe that man is Tom Hooper. But he'll have plenty of help from his stellar cast. In addition to the three mentioned above, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, and Sacha Baron Cohen also star. The musical and book is so powerful that if they can pull it off with the same emotion as they did, you could be looking at your Best Picture. It's also being released on Christmas Day, so it will be one of the last movies the voters will see, keeping it fresh on their minds.
What's Going Against It:
Hollywood adaptions of musicals have been hit, but mostly miss. In 2002, Chicago shocked the industry when it was nominated for thirteen nominations including six wins. Every since then, people have been trying to match that result. The best comparison for a Hollywood musical with Les Mis has to be Phantom of the Opera. Released just two years removed from Chicago, Phantom only mustered three nomination (the most prestigious being Best Original Song) and zero wins. It was a beloved musical with high expectations and a very talented director (Joel Schumacher), but it couldn't live up to the hype. However, Les Mis has something Phantom didn't have: a talented cast. Gerard Butler led the way for Phantom, and with all due respect to Butler, Hugh Jackman beats Gerard Butler any day of the week. Honestly, there's not much going against Les Mis. If it's as good as we expect it to be, watch out.
What to Expect:
Nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress
More than contending in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay
Quite a few technical categories
4. Zero Dark Thirty
In 2009, James Cameron's Avatar lit up the box office on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in movie history. Many people (including myself) thought that this success would equal Oscar gold. However, when Oscar Sunday rolled around, The Hurt Locker, grossing only sixteen million dollars, was your Best Picture and Kathyrn Bigelow was your Best Director. Now, Bigelow is back, and for the first time in her career, a household name with the Academy.
What's Going For It:
As the season continues on, Zero Dark Thirty has picked a whole lot of steam. Momentum is always a big factor when it comes to the Oscars, and it has a lot of it. Another advantage for it is simply its subject matter. This film follows the events preceding the eventual operation that would kill Osama Bin Laden. That sounds like something the Academy would eat with a spoon. It also has a stellar cast, led by 2011's breakthrough star Jessica Chastain, who will getting plenty of attention in a weak Best Actress field.
What's Going Against It:
Argo's success hurts it. I find it hard to believe that the Academy will nominate two movies with the same basic feel to it. They'll nominate one, but I firmly believe that one will be Argo. Tough competition is also a factor. In the categories that it has a chance of doing something in, plenty of contenders are waiting.
What to Expect:
Best Actress nomination for Chastain
Contending for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress in addition to the technical categories
How much these four films will effect the race can't be determined right now, but a month from now, these movies have the chance to drastically change the scope of the fields. This weekend, I'll release my first Oscar predictions. Just know that those predictions won't be the ones I stick with, and the reason for that are these four movies.
Let the race begin.
It's also the most wonderful time of the year for a movie fan because it's Oscar season, and when Oscar season rolls around, film companies put their best movies forward in hopes of wooing the voters to give them the gold statue come February.
By this time, we usually have a pretty good grasp on what movies we can expect to be there in the end. Movies that we anticipated being in the race are very much there. Since the announcement of its production, Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, and Tommy Lee Jones, has been christened a frontrunner, and it hasn't disappointed. It has maintained that frontrunner status in Best Picture, Actor, and Director, with nominations certainly to come in Supporting Actor and Actress. Ben Affleck has had quite an interesting career, evolving from his Daredevil acting days to directing very high quality film such as Gone Baby Gone and The Town. However, the Oscars have all but ignored his talents. That will all change this year thanks to Argo, the biggest challenger at the moment to Lincoln. David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook will definitely be a contender thanks to its fantastic performances. Other films, such as Life of Pi, The Master, and Amour, will also be in the thick of things.
However, the Oscar race is by no means set in stone quite yet. I look at five movies that have yet to be released yet that can cause some chaos in the race.
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Lord of the Rings franchise is one of the most popular franchises worldwide, but unlike its franchise counterparts, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings have been recognized by the Academy Awards on multiple occasions. The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for twelve Oscars including four wins. The Two Towers got six nominations and two victories. The Return of the King was given the most love from the Academy, receiving eleven nominations and eleven wins, including Best Picture and Best Director. To say the bar has been set high for The Hobbit franchise is quite an understatement.
What's Going For It:
Everything that I just mentioned works in its favorite. The Academy is a fan of the Peter Jackson franchise. Why wouldn't they want to nominate it again if it's good enough? Another thing is that this could be the only fanboy favorite that has a legit shot of getting some nominations. Movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers had high hopes of shocking the world and getting a Best Picture nomination, but those scenarios never panned out. The Dark Knight Rises had obvious aspirations of Oscars, but its momentum is all but gone. That leaves The Hobbit to represent the everyday fan at the Oscars. The Academy, in recent years, have expressed interest in improving their ratings by getting those necessary movies into the field. That was the main reason why the expanded the Best Picture field from five movies to ten movies after The Dark Knight was snubbed in 2008. The Hobbit would certainly cause some younger audience members to tune in in February.
What's Going Against It:
Tough competition. Every category this year is highly competitive (outside of Best Actress, a category The Hobbit can't even be considered for anyway). It would have to do the unthinkable and surpass everyone's expectations and be significantly better than the original trilogy. I simply don't see that happening. The trailers give us the "been there, done that" feel, which is fine for fans, but that won't cut it for the Academy.
What to Expect:
Technical categories (i.e. Best Production Design and Best Makeup)
2. Django Unchained
When movie buffs think of the greatest directors of all-time, Quentin Tarantino is in the conversation. It seems that every movie that he puts out there is an instant cult-classic, and Django Unchained has all the makings of doing just that, boasting a stellar cast led by Christoph Waltz and Jaime Foxx with Leonardo Dicaprio as the villain.
What's Going For It:
The Academy can be a pretty big fan of Tarantino's work, giving Q four nominations with one win over the span of his career. When a movie has a cast such as this one, the acting can carry it to some Oscar love (check out The Help). It's being released on Christmas Day, a coveted spot for Oscar hopefuls, which leads me to believe that the people behind this movie has faith in it.
What's Going Against It:
As was the case for The Hobbit, tough competiton looms. However, Django Unchained has internal competition as well. Everyone expected Jaime Foxx to be a candidate for Best Actor, but earlier this month, it was announced that Christoph Waltz would also be campaigned for a Best Actor nomination instead of a Best Supporting Actor. That brings up the problem of split-voting, where voters will have to choose between Foxx and Waltz instead of the movie having just one candidate to compete with everyone else instead of competing with themselves. Same situation for Best Supporting Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is long overdue an Oscar, but early word is that Samuel L. Jackson could be the better candidate. This year makes it difficult enough to compete with other movies. You simply can't have internal competition in a race like this.
What to Expect:
Competing for Best Actor and Supporting Actress but falling short
Just sneaking into the Best Supporting Actor field
3. Les Miserables
What happens when you tell me that the most beloved musical of all-time has cast Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Russell Crowe to bring an extremely powerful story to life? I would tell you that you had a serious Oscar contender on your hands, and that's what I fully expect Les Mis to be.
What's Going For It:
Tom Hooper is the director, and this is his follow-up to 2010's The King's Speech, which was nominated for twelve Oscars also receiving four wins, including Best Picture, Actor, and, of course, Director. Hooper's name is definitely in the minds of the voters, and he's very popular in their eyes. He's been given one of the most cherished pieces of literature ever written. If anyone around today can pull this off, I believe that man is Tom Hooper. But he'll have plenty of help from his stellar cast. In addition to the three mentioned above, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, Eddie Redmayne, Helena Bonham Carter, and Sacha Baron Cohen also star. The musical and book is so powerful that if they can pull it off with the same emotion as they did, you could be looking at your Best Picture. It's also being released on Christmas Day, so it will be one of the last movies the voters will see, keeping it fresh on their minds.
What's Going Against It:
Hollywood adaptions of musicals have been hit, but mostly miss. In 2002, Chicago shocked the industry when it was nominated for thirteen nominations including six wins. Every since then, people have been trying to match that result. The best comparison for a Hollywood musical with Les Mis has to be Phantom of the Opera. Released just two years removed from Chicago, Phantom only mustered three nomination (the most prestigious being Best Original Song) and zero wins. It was a beloved musical with high expectations and a very talented director (Joel Schumacher), but it couldn't live up to the hype. However, Les Mis has something Phantom didn't have: a talented cast. Gerard Butler led the way for Phantom, and with all due respect to Butler, Hugh Jackman beats Gerard Butler any day of the week. Honestly, there's not much going against Les Mis. If it's as good as we expect it to be, watch out.
What to Expect:
Nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress
More than contending in Best Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay
Quite a few technical categories
4. Zero Dark Thirty
In 2009, James Cameron's Avatar lit up the box office on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in movie history. Many people (including myself) thought that this success would equal Oscar gold. However, when Oscar Sunday rolled around, The Hurt Locker, grossing only sixteen million dollars, was your Best Picture and Kathyrn Bigelow was your Best Director. Now, Bigelow is back, and for the first time in her career, a household name with the Academy.
What's Going For It:
As the season continues on, Zero Dark Thirty has picked a whole lot of steam. Momentum is always a big factor when it comes to the Oscars, and it has a lot of it. Another advantage for it is simply its subject matter. This film follows the events preceding the eventual operation that would kill Osama Bin Laden. That sounds like something the Academy would eat with a spoon. It also has a stellar cast, led by 2011's breakthrough star Jessica Chastain, who will getting plenty of attention in a weak Best Actress field.
What's Going Against It:
Argo's success hurts it. I find it hard to believe that the Academy will nominate two movies with the same basic feel to it. They'll nominate one, but I firmly believe that one will be Argo. Tough competition is also a factor. In the categories that it has a chance of doing something in, plenty of contenders are waiting.
What to Expect:
Best Actress nomination for Chastain
Contending for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress in addition to the technical categories
How much these four films will effect the race can't be determined right now, but a month from now, these movies have the chance to drastically change the scope of the fields. This weekend, I'll release my first Oscar predictions. Just know that those predictions won't be the ones I stick with, and the reason for that are these four movies.
Let the race begin.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Lest We Forget.....While Still Moving On
Since July of 2008, when Heath Ledger famously portaryed the Joker in Christopher Nolan's classic The Dark Knight, fans worldwide had been anticipating the next chapter in the Batman saga with unprecedented excitement. Some called Nolan's task impossible, while many expected nothing short of greatness from one of Hollywood's most brilliant moviemakers.
As each month passed from 2008 to 2012, anticipation rose for The Dark Knight Rises, but along the way, Nolan raised some eyebrows. It was first announced that Bane would be the villain in the next installment, one of Batman's lesser known adversaries whose most famous big-screen appearance was in Batman and Robin, the laughing stock of the franchise. Nolan didn't stop there, though, as he then went on to cast Anne Hathaway as Selina Kyle, a.k.a Catwoman. Die-hard fans (including me) were starting to question Nolan's decisions.
But still, who couldn't have been beyond excited for this film? It was reported that a theater in New York sold out of their midnight screenings six months in advance, an accurate representation of the build up this movie has created. I, like countless others around the country, sacrificed my sleep on the evening of July 19/morning of July 20 to see the final chapter. I arrived at the theater at ten o'clock and sat in the theater for 2 hours desperately waiting for the lights to dim and the show to finally begin. I, along with about 100 of my closest friends went from talking to the person next to us to complete and utter silence as the movie opened. Three hours later, we emerged more than impressed and honored we were able to be one the first to witness this historic cinema moment, the end to what will go down in history as one of the best trilogies of all-time.
Then, we woke up the next morning to the worst news imaginable.
In Aurora, Colorado, at the midnight premiere of The Dark Knight Rises at the Century 16 theater, lone suspect James Holmes, dressed in tactical clothing, enters the theater and proceeds to set off tear gas grenades. He then opens fire in the audience, killing 12 people (including a three month old) and injuring 58 more.
The news caught the entire country by surprise, leaving the citizens of Aurora and the rest of America mourning the loss of these innocent victims. No one can fathom why someone would do this, and they probably never will. The fact is that it did happen for whatever reason. We just have to learn to live with it.
As a result, The Dark Knight Rises' box office numbers suffered because of the mourning and the legitimate fear of moviegoers, and the box office is still trying to recover. Although because of the last two weekends, it seems that people are finally starting to go back to the theaters, as evidenced by Hotel Transylvania's September record-setting weekend and Taken 2 grossing over $50 million despite terrible reviews (20% on Rotten Tomatoes). All signs point towards the box office being back to normal.
But let's not forget what transpired in Aurora.....ever.
And that's the reason I write this piece today. While it seems everything is back to normal, we must never forget what happened. The families of those 12 people who were killed have certainly not forgotten and never will forget. The workers of the Century 16 theater that worked that night have certainly not forgetten and never will forget. The citizens of Aurora have certainly not forgotten and never will forget.
Have you forgotten?
I write this as a person who loves going to the movies more so than anyone out there. I've noticed people moving on from that incident in the same manner the nation did with the Columbine shootings. I've noticed the box office recover, which is something I am absolutely grateful for. But today, I just want you to take some time to remember Aurora. Say a prayer for their city and those families. Be thankful everyday for the people around you. Tell them that you love them.
Never forget.
As each month passed from 2008 to 2012, anticipation rose for The Dark Knight Rises, but along the way, Nolan raised some eyebrows. It was first announced that Bane would be the villain in the next installment, one of Batman's lesser known adversaries whose most famous big-screen appearance was in Batman and Robin, the laughing stock of the franchise. Nolan didn't stop there, though, as he then went on to cast Anne Hathaway as Selina Kyle, a.k.a Catwoman. Die-hard fans (including me) were starting to question Nolan's decisions.
But still, who couldn't have been beyond excited for this film? It was reported that a theater in New York sold out of their midnight screenings six months in advance, an accurate representation of the build up this movie has created. I, like countless others around the country, sacrificed my sleep on the evening of July 19/morning of July 20 to see the final chapter. I arrived at the theater at ten o'clock and sat in the theater for 2 hours desperately waiting for the lights to dim and the show to finally begin. I, along with about 100 of my closest friends went from talking to the person next to us to complete and utter silence as the movie opened. Three hours later, we emerged more than impressed and honored we were able to be one the first to witness this historic cinema moment, the end to what will go down in history as one of the best trilogies of all-time.
Then, we woke up the next morning to the worst news imaginable.
In Aurora, Colorado, at the midnight premiere of The Dark Knight Rises at the Century 16 theater, lone suspect James Holmes, dressed in tactical clothing, enters the theater and proceeds to set off tear gas grenades. He then opens fire in the audience, killing 12 people (including a three month old) and injuring 58 more.
The news caught the entire country by surprise, leaving the citizens of Aurora and the rest of America mourning the loss of these innocent victims. No one can fathom why someone would do this, and they probably never will. The fact is that it did happen for whatever reason. We just have to learn to live with it.
As a result, The Dark Knight Rises' box office numbers suffered because of the mourning and the legitimate fear of moviegoers, and the box office is still trying to recover. Although because of the last two weekends, it seems that people are finally starting to go back to the theaters, as evidenced by Hotel Transylvania's September record-setting weekend and Taken 2 grossing over $50 million despite terrible reviews (20% on Rotten Tomatoes). All signs point towards the box office being back to normal.
But let's not forget what transpired in Aurora.....ever.
And that's the reason I write this piece today. While it seems everything is back to normal, we must never forget what happened. The families of those 12 people who were killed have certainly not forgotten and never will forget. The workers of the Century 16 theater that worked that night have certainly not forgetten and never will forget. The citizens of Aurora have certainly not forgotten and never will forget.
Have you forgotten?
I write this as a person who loves going to the movies more so than anyone out there. I've noticed people moving on from that incident in the same manner the nation did with the Columbine shootings. I've noticed the box office recover, which is something I am absolutely grateful for. But today, I just want you to take some time to remember Aurora. Say a prayer for their city and those families. Be thankful everyday for the people around you. Tell them that you love them.
Never forget.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Bradley Cooper: Career at a Crossroads
In 2005, we were, for the first time, given the movie star known as Bradley Cooper in the cult classic, Wedding Crashers, and ever since the, Cooper's acting ability has evolved tremendously. For the next four years following Wedding Crashers, Cooper took on minor supporting roles in such films such as Yes Man and He's Just Not That Into You. At this point in his career, nobody had really high expectations for the still amateur in the business. Never did we envision him being a top-tier name in Hollywood.
Then came 2009.
The Hangover.
Todd Philips' instant classic of a movie was Cooper's first true lead role, and he proved to the world that he can deliever the goods. With a supporting cast that included Zach Galifianakis, Ed Helms, and Justin Bartha, it would be easy for Cooper to get lost, but he steps up to the plate and hits a homerun. The Hangover went on to become the third-highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time behind The Passion of the Christ and The Matrix Reloaded and spawned The Hangover Part II, which become the fourth-highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time in 2011.
Cooper had then established himself as an actor more than capable of anchoring a blockbuster. He could choose virtually any path he wanted to, but instead, he resorted to his previous failure-like movies in such disasters as Case 39 and All About Steve. He attempted to get back to superstar status with The A-Team, the film adaption of the classic television show starring Liam Neeson, Sharlto Copley, and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. However, the movie bombed at the box office (only managing $77.2 million on a $110 million budget) and it was largely considered at a critical failure (47% on Rotten Tomatoes).
But unlike before, Cooper kept trying to break into superstardom. In March 2011, he co-starred with Robert De Niro in Limitless, but that duo still couldn't ignite the box office, only grossing about $79.2 million. Then came the before-mentioned The Hangover Part II, putting Cooper right back into Hollywood's spotlight and forgiving his recent blunders.
Once again, Cooper had the Hangover success to put him anywhere he wanted, but he apparently didn't learn from his first mistake, starring in recent duds as The Words and Hit and Run, which have combined grossed only about $22 million.
But then I read a review of his next film, Silver Linings Playbook, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro, and a word was mentioned in the same sentence as Bradley Cooper that I had never anticipated: Oscar. Bradley Cooper should be considered an Oscar candidate? This past month, Silver Linings Playbook debuted at the Toronto Film Festival, one of the many Oscar indicators. The film came in with very limited Oscar buzz, but it ended up winning the festival's equivalent Best Picture and also thrusting Cooper, Lawrence, De Niro, and director David O. Russell's name right to the front of the pack for this year's Academy Awards. Then, another Cooper film, The Place Beyond the Pines debuted as well. Co-starring Ryan Gosling, this film also acquired positive word-of-mouth and once again, Cooper and Oscar was in the same sentence. However, The Place Beyond the Pines doesn't have a distributor this year, so it won't be released until next year and therefore preventing it from being in this year's race.
But Cooper has delievered two Oscar worthy performances, and in 2014, we could introduce Cooper as a two-time Oscar nominee. Is this a new and improved Bradley Cooper? Is this the Cooper we can expect from this point in his career on? Next summer, we'll see Cooper in The Hangover Part III, but afterwards, we'll see him in an untitled movie....directed by David O. Russell, potential Oscar gold again.
Maybe Cooper has learned from his mistakes in the early part of his career. Maybe he has realized that he does have legitmate talent and deserves better than the romantic comedy. He needs to stay on this path of success becasue if he does, he can truly become one of Hollywood's finest actors. If he doesn't, he'll probably end up like Matthew McConaughey, a respected actor but no hardware to prove it.
Bradley Cooper's career is at a crossroads. Here's hoping he chooses the road less traveled....the road that leads to the Hollywood Hall of Fame.
Then came 2009.
The Hangover.
Todd Philips' instant classic of a movie was Cooper's first true lead role, and he proved to the world that he can deliever the goods. With a supporting cast that included Zach Galifianakis, Ed Helms, and Justin Bartha, it would be easy for Cooper to get lost, but he steps up to the plate and hits a homerun. The Hangover went on to become the third-highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time behind The Passion of the Christ and The Matrix Reloaded and spawned The Hangover Part II, which become the fourth-highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time in 2011.
Cooper had then established himself as an actor more than capable of anchoring a blockbuster. He could choose virtually any path he wanted to, but instead, he resorted to his previous failure-like movies in such disasters as Case 39 and All About Steve. He attempted to get back to superstar status with The A-Team, the film adaption of the classic television show starring Liam Neeson, Sharlto Copley, and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. However, the movie bombed at the box office (only managing $77.2 million on a $110 million budget) and it was largely considered at a critical failure (47% on Rotten Tomatoes).
But unlike before, Cooper kept trying to break into superstardom. In March 2011, he co-starred with Robert De Niro in Limitless, but that duo still couldn't ignite the box office, only grossing about $79.2 million. Then came the before-mentioned The Hangover Part II, putting Cooper right back into Hollywood's spotlight and forgiving his recent blunders.
Once again, Cooper had the Hangover success to put him anywhere he wanted, but he apparently didn't learn from his first mistake, starring in recent duds as The Words and Hit and Run, which have combined grossed only about $22 million.
But then I read a review of his next film, Silver Linings Playbook, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro, and a word was mentioned in the same sentence as Bradley Cooper that I had never anticipated: Oscar. Bradley Cooper should be considered an Oscar candidate? This past month, Silver Linings Playbook debuted at the Toronto Film Festival, one of the many Oscar indicators. The film came in with very limited Oscar buzz, but it ended up winning the festival's equivalent Best Picture and also thrusting Cooper, Lawrence, De Niro, and director David O. Russell's name right to the front of the pack for this year's Academy Awards. Then, another Cooper film, The Place Beyond the Pines debuted as well. Co-starring Ryan Gosling, this film also acquired positive word-of-mouth and once again, Cooper and Oscar was in the same sentence. However, The Place Beyond the Pines doesn't have a distributor this year, so it won't be released until next year and therefore preventing it from being in this year's race.
But Cooper has delievered two Oscar worthy performances, and in 2014, we could introduce Cooper as a two-time Oscar nominee. Is this a new and improved Bradley Cooper? Is this the Cooper we can expect from this point in his career on? Next summer, we'll see Cooper in The Hangover Part III, but afterwards, we'll see him in an untitled movie....directed by David O. Russell, potential Oscar gold again.
Maybe Cooper has learned from his mistakes in the early part of his career. Maybe he has realized that he does have legitmate talent and deserves better than the romantic comedy. He needs to stay on this path of success becasue if he does, he can truly become one of Hollywood's finest actors. If he doesn't, he'll probably end up like Matthew McConaughey, a respected actor but no hardware to prove it.
Bradley Cooper's career is at a crossroads. Here's hoping he chooses the road less traveled....the road that leads to the Hollywood Hall of Fame.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Wake Up, Hollywood!
Ever since we were given The Dark Knight Rises on July 20, which has to this point grossed roughly $440 million, the box office has steadily declined to give the people one of the most disappointing months of the year, being capped off by the past weekend of September 7-9 earning the "award" of lowest grossing weekend since 2008, with The Possession topping the weekend at only $9.3 million. The distribution companies have put a lot of stock in a lot of films that have disappointed at the box office, so the question has to be asked: why?
Why is the box office in its worst shape in four years?
If a movie doesn't appeal to an audience, the audience won't show, and therefore, the box office will bomb. Pretty simple, right? If the viewer isn't compelled by the marketers to pay $8 for a two-hour plus long movie, they won't. Movie prices are escalating, and if we won't to get folks back to the theater, the industry must give them a reason to, and the only way they can do that is offer high quality films instead of the mediocre ones that the past weeks have brought to the table.
On Rotten Tomatoes, five of the top ten movies at the box office this weekend are "certified rotten," which easily means that at the most, only half the people that rated that movie liked it. That means five movies are "certified fresh," but that could be misleading when you take a closer look at it. In order to be "certified fresh," 60% of the raters must have liked it. Three of those movies have a rating of 64%, 65%, and 66%, borderline rotten. That leaves only two movies that are legitimately fresh.
People go to the movies to be entertained. If word on the street is rotten, people today are not going to commit two hours of their time and spend $8 plus for something that is widely considered rotten. The reason that the box office is now at a four-year low is that no movies are worth seeing at the moment. The Watch had the starpower of Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill along with a late summer release and still only managed to gross $34 million. Total Recall had the original classic's grace and the appeal of Colin Farrell, but only grossed $58 million on a $125 million budget. The Bourne Legacy had the graces of Matt Damon's original trilogy and the surging stardom of Jeremy Renner, but only grossed $104 million, $17 million behing Damon's The Bourne Identity, the previous lowest of the series. The Campaign had Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis in a political satire in an election year and still just made $80 million. The Expendables 2 had every action star of the past half-century and only managed $76 million, roughly $28 million behind the first installment. Lawless had Tom Hardy coming off The Dark Knight Rises and a supporting cast of Shia LaBeouf, Gary Oldman, Guy Pearce, and Jessica Chastain and only grossed $24 million to this point.
Now, people have proven that if you give them a reason to show up, they will. In March, The Hunger Games recorded the fifth-highest opening weekend in history en route to a total gross of $408 million. The Avengers recorded the highest opening weekend ever at just over $207 million on track to $621 million, third most all-time. Brave steadily recorded $233 million thanks to its Pixar brand and positive word of mouth. And of course, The Dark Knight Rises grossed $161 million opening weekend and onward to $438 million and counting. But if you pay close attention, you'll notice something: all four films were certified fresh coming in at 84%, 92%, 77%, and 87% respectively. In fact, this year's top seven highest grossing movies are certified fresh. If people like what they see, they'll shell out the money.
But that's the problem: we have too many movies nowadays that leave people underwhelmed.
So I call on Hollywood to step up their game....now. Quit talking about how bad the box office is and instead, give us those movies we all want to see instead of the ones we feel obligated to see.
Wake up, Hollywood! You've created this mess with your lack of creativity and sloppy moviemaking! Now, you fix it! We're just the buyers of your great product, and we want to buy your product, but if your product isn't worth buying, we'll simply stay away. Give us reason to buy, and then we'll happily see you at the movies again.
Why is the box office in its worst shape in four years?
If a movie doesn't appeal to an audience, the audience won't show, and therefore, the box office will bomb. Pretty simple, right? If the viewer isn't compelled by the marketers to pay $8 for a two-hour plus long movie, they won't. Movie prices are escalating, and if we won't to get folks back to the theater, the industry must give them a reason to, and the only way they can do that is offer high quality films instead of the mediocre ones that the past weeks have brought to the table.
On Rotten Tomatoes, five of the top ten movies at the box office this weekend are "certified rotten," which easily means that at the most, only half the people that rated that movie liked it. That means five movies are "certified fresh," but that could be misleading when you take a closer look at it. In order to be "certified fresh," 60% of the raters must have liked it. Three of those movies have a rating of 64%, 65%, and 66%, borderline rotten. That leaves only two movies that are legitimately fresh.
People go to the movies to be entertained. If word on the street is rotten, people today are not going to commit two hours of their time and spend $8 plus for something that is widely considered rotten. The reason that the box office is now at a four-year low is that no movies are worth seeing at the moment. The Watch had the starpower of Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill along with a late summer release and still only managed to gross $34 million. Total Recall had the original classic's grace and the appeal of Colin Farrell, but only grossed $58 million on a $125 million budget. The Bourne Legacy had the graces of Matt Damon's original trilogy and the surging stardom of Jeremy Renner, but only grossed $104 million, $17 million behing Damon's The Bourne Identity, the previous lowest of the series. The Campaign had Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis in a political satire in an election year and still just made $80 million. The Expendables 2 had every action star of the past half-century and only managed $76 million, roughly $28 million behind the first installment. Lawless had Tom Hardy coming off The Dark Knight Rises and a supporting cast of Shia LaBeouf, Gary Oldman, Guy Pearce, and Jessica Chastain and only grossed $24 million to this point.
Now, people have proven that if you give them a reason to show up, they will. In March, The Hunger Games recorded the fifth-highest opening weekend in history en route to a total gross of $408 million. The Avengers recorded the highest opening weekend ever at just over $207 million on track to $621 million, third most all-time. Brave steadily recorded $233 million thanks to its Pixar brand and positive word of mouth. And of course, The Dark Knight Rises grossed $161 million opening weekend and onward to $438 million and counting. But if you pay close attention, you'll notice something: all four films were certified fresh coming in at 84%, 92%, 77%, and 87% respectively. In fact, this year's top seven highest grossing movies are certified fresh. If people like what they see, they'll shell out the money.
But that's the problem: we have too many movies nowadays that leave people underwhelmed.
So I call on Hollywood to step up their game....now. Quit talking about how bad the box office is and instead, give us those movies we all want to see instead of the ones we feel obligated to see.
Wake up, Hollywood! You've created this mess with your lack of creativity and sloppy moviemaking! Now, you fix it! We're just the buyers of your great product, and we want to buy your product, but if your product isn't worth buying, we'll simply stay away. Give us reason to buy, and then we'll happily see you at the movies again.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Summer 2012 in Review
Labor Day marks the end of summer for the movie industry, and this summer has been full of absolutely great movies. With this, I'm going to share with the some of the highlights.
The summer got started off with a bang on the first weekend of May with Marvel's The Avengers. The comic book giant was faced with a claimed impossible mission: bring together the world's most popular superheroes, put them in one movie, and make that one movie epic. Mission: accomplished. Director Joss Whedon made this movie work in the grand scheme of things, but credit has to be given to the cast, led by Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner, Scarlett Johannson, and Samuel L. Jackson. They all bought into the idea, and it shows by becoming the third highest grossing film in history.
To say the least, the standard that The Avengers set was so high that it would be near impossible to reach it. In the following two weeks of May, we're given two good, not great, movies,: Dark Shadows and Battleship. Both were successful in different aspects. Dark Shadows worked because of star Johnny Depp. No other reason. Without Depp, it probably would have been unbearable to watch, but as always, Depp comes to the rescue and in the process makes a pretty good movie. Battleship didn't have the luxury of great acting (outside of Liam Neeson), but instead, it relied heavily on special effects. The special effects were great and single-handely made this movie enjoyable.
The last week in May gave us Men in Black III. Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones return to their iconic roles, but the true star of this movie is Josh Brolin, who plays a younger Jones and absolutely nails it. Like the first two, the premise gets out of hand at times, but unlike the others, you feel something at the end thanks to one of the best endings I seen in recent memory. We can only hope we haven't seen the last of the MIB.
June came and was shockingly pretty successful. Week one brought us Snow White and the Huntsman, starring Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlize Theron. At first glance, I was skeptical. But to my pleasant surprise, it delievered. Hemsworth shines with Stewart and Theron holding their own in one of the best of the summer.
The second week brought us two totally different films: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted and Prometheus. Madagascar 3 was by far the best installment of the popular franchise. Like MIB 3, this one connected emotionally, and any time an animated movie can do that, they deserve some praise. Prometheus was director Ridley Scott's much welcomed return to the science fiction world, and he tackles a prequel to the film that gave him his start, Alien. While it didn't answer all the questions we had (in fact, it probably raised more questions), the sheer scope of it all was fantastic and the story was compelling and exciting, turning this sci-fi film into one the best of the year, not just the summer.
The next weekend brought us Rock of Ages, starring Tom Cruise, Alec Baldwin, and Russell Brand. It was pretty nice to take a stroll down memory lane to the land of the 80's. With countless catchy songs and a surprisingly good story, Rock of Ages was a very good movie.
Pixar's Brave was next. Pixar had to respond with authority after last year's critical disappointment, Cars 2, and they rose to the occasion, giving us a movie that deserves to mentioned in the same breath as Wall-E, The Incredibles, and A Bug's Life. I'm not ready to put it in the same breath as a Finding Nemo or a Toy Story, but it is worthy of being called a Pixar classic.
The final week of June brings us two films: Madea's Witness Protection and People Like Us. Tyler Perry's return to his cross-dressing Madea was just as hilarious as his previous installments and only left me wanting more Madea. People Like Us, starring Chris Pine and Elizabeth Banks, was a widely over-looked film, but why? The story is top-notch and the cast was at the top of their game. The ending was absolutely great and if you haven't seen it, check it out.
July had some pretty loftly standards to live up to after a pretty impressive May and June. Fourth of July week brought us The Amazing Spider-Man. The pressure was on to justify rebooting this series with a new cast, new director, and retelling of a story we already know, but Marvel once again rised to the occasion with a fantastic film. Andrew Garfield more than fills the shoes of Tobey Maguire as the Peter Parker, and his supporting cast, led by Emma Stone, Rhys Ifans, Denis Leary, Martin Sheen, and Sally Field, showed up as well. One can only hope that there's more coming from the webslinger.
Then came Ice Age: Continental Drift. The fourth installment of the widely popular franchise brings the typical comedy and silliness that we're used to. Nothing new in this one, but still solid entertaiment.
Then, one of the most anticipated weekends in movie history came with the release of The Dark Knight Rises. Christopher Nolan had the weight of the world on his shoulders to follow-up his insanely incredible The Dark Knight, and he more than delievers. The cast, led by Christian Bale, Michael Caine, Tom Hardy, and Anne Hathaway, give us not only a great superhero movie, but just a great movie overall. It currently sits atop my best of all-time list. Enough said.
Which movie would be brave enough to follow that colossal hit? Step Up: Revolution. With a cast that I've never heard of and a franchise I've never taken interest in, I really don't know what compelled me to see this, but leaving it, I was moderately happy that I did. It reminded me a lot of the classic, Dirty Dancing. That's a pretty solid comparison.
When I looked at August, I approached the movie schedule with great excitement but also with hesitation. All the films had potential, but they also all had question marks. Week one gave us Total Recall. I'm still not sure why they chose to remake the Arnold Schwarzeneggar classic, but they did, and gave us a solid movie. I'm still not sure Colin Farrell can become a dynamite leading actor (he's much better in a supporting role), but he comes to play in this movie, and it shows.
The next week brought us three totally different movies. The first of which was The Campaign starring Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis. This absolutely hilarious take on the political campaign trail was a fantastic idea, and they couldn't have got a better duo to star.
Hope Springs was next, starring veterans Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones. While having a very adult themed premise, the reason I saw it was for Jones, as he once again shines in everything he does. Streep, as always, delievers, and brings us a fairly good movie.
The highlight of the weekend was The Bourne Legacy. A Jason Bourne themed movie without Matt Damon? I know it's weird, but Jeremy Renner is more than capable of taking over the franchise. I was skeptical going, but I left there feeling that the franchise still has some in the tank.
It's tough to follow that strong of a weekend, but lo and beyond, the next weekend did with another trio of greats. The first was The Expendables 2. I was a huge fan of the first actioneer, and my hopes were high going in, and then, you give Arnold Schwarzeneggar and Bruce Willis more screen time, and add on Chuck Norris, Jean Claude Van-Damme, and Liam Hemsworth to a cast that already included Sylvester Stallone, Jason Statham, and Terry Crews. Let's face it. You couldn't go wrong.
The next was the stop-motion hit, ParaNorman. I told myself that I would only see this movie if the reviews were beyond good. They were, so I checked it out, and it was surprisingly pretty good. With an ending that is heart-warming, ParaNorman was a surprise hit.
The final film was The Odd Life of Timothy Green. Disney can't go wrong in my book, and given this source material, I knew that this was a homerun waiting to happen, and it was. Sweet and filled with endearing performances, Timothy Green gave us our second surprise hit of the weekend.
The next week brought us Premium Rush, starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Michael Shannon. With non-stop action and a strong story, this one gave us a worthy late summer addition to the list.
The final weekend of the year brought us Lawless. If you want to know how I feel about this one, check out my first blog- "Tom Hardy is For Real."
Summer was, as you can see, incredible. The remainder of the movies left this year have an awful lot to live up to. So we bid summer 2012 goodbye, and say hello to the wonder of Oscar season!
The summer got started off with a bang on the first weekend of May with Marvel's The Avengers. The comic book giant was faced with a claimed impossible mission: bring together the world's most popular superheroes, put them in one movie, and make that one movie epic. Mission: accomplished. Director Joss Whedon made this movie work in the grand scheme of things, but credit has to be given to the cast, led by Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner, Scarlett Johannson, and Samuel L. Jackson. They all bought into the idea, and it shows by becoming the third highest grossing film in history.
To say the least, the standard that The Avengers set was so high that it would be near impossible to reach it. In the following two weeks of May, we're given two good, not great, movies,: Dark Shadows and Battleship. Both were successful in different aspects. Dark Shadows worked because of star Johnny Depp. No other reason. Without Depp, it probably would have been unbearable to watch, but as always, Depp comes to the rescue and in the process makes a pretty good movie. Battleship didn't have the luxury of great acting (outside of Liam Neeson), but instead, it relied heavily on special effects. The special effects were great and single-handely made this movie enjoyable.
The last week in May gave us Men in Black III. Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones return to their iconic roles, but the true star of this movie is Josh Brolin, who plays a younger Jones and absolutely nails it. Like the first two, the premise gets out of hand at times, but unlike the others, you feel something at the end thanks to one of the best endings I seen in recent memory. We can only hope we haven't seen the last of the MIB.
June came and was shockingly pretty successful. Week one brought us Snow White and the Huntsman, starring Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlize Theron. At first glance, I was skeptical. But to my pleasant surprise, it delievered. Hemsworth shines with Stewart and Theron holding their own in one of the best of the summer.
The second week brought us two totally different films: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted and Prometheus. Madagascar 3 was by far the best installment of the popular franchise. Like MIB 3, this one connected emotionally, and any time an animated movie can do that, they deserve some praise. Prometheus was director Ridley Scott's much welcomed return to the science fiction world, and he tackles a prequel to the film that gave him his start, Alien. While it didn't answer all the questions we had (in fact, it probably raised more questions), the sheer scope of it all was fantastic and the story was compelling and exciting, turning this sci-fi film into one the best of the year, not just the summer.
The next weekend brought us Rock of Ages, starring Tom Cruise, Alec Baldwin, and Russell Brand. It was pretty nice to take a stroll down memory lane to the land of the 80's. With countless catchy songs and a surprisingly good story, Rock of Ages was a very good movie.
Pixar's Brave was next. Pixar had to respond with authority after last year's critical disappointment, Cars 2, and they rose to the occasion, giving us a movie that deserves to mentioned in the same breath as Wall-E, The Incredibles, and A Bug's Life. I'm not ready to put it in the same breath as a Finding Nemo or a Toy Story, but it is worthy of being called a Pixar classic.
The final week of June brings us two films: Madea's Witness Protection and People Like Us. Tyler Perry's return to his cross-dressing Madea was just as hilarious as his previous installments and only left me wanting more Madea. People Like Us, starring Chris Pine and Elizabeth Banks, was a widely over-looked film, but why? The story is top-notch and the cast was at the top of their game. The ending was absolutely great and if you haven't seen it, check it out.
July had some pretty loftly standards to live up to after a pretty impressive May and June. Fourth of July week brought us The Amazing Spider-Man. The pressure was on to justify rebooting this series with a new cast, new director, and retelling of a story we already know, but Marvel once again rised to the occasion with a fantastic film. Andrew Garfield more than fills the shoes of Tobey Maguire as the Peter Parker, and his supporting cast, led by Emma Stone, Rhys Ifans, Denis Leary, Martin Sheen, and Sally Field, showed up as well. One can only hope that there's more coming from the webslinger.
Then came Ice Age: Continental Drift. The fourth installment of the widely popular franchise brings the typical comedy and silliness that we're used to. Nothing new in this one, but still solid entertaiment.
Then, one of the most anticipated weekends in movie history came with the release of The Dark Knight Rises. Christopher Nolan had the weight of the world on his shoulders to follow-up his insanely incredible The Dark Knight, and he more than delievers. The cast, led by Christian Bale, Michael Caine, Tom Hardy, and Anne Hathaway, give us not only a great superhero movie, but just a great movie overall. It currently sits atop my best of all-time list. Enough said.
Which movie would be brave enough to follow that colossal hit? Step Up: Revolution. With a cast that I've never heard of and a franchise I've never taken interest in, I really don't know what compelled me to see this, but leaving it, I was moderately happy that I did. It reminded me a lot of the classic, Dirty Dancing. That's a pretty solid comparison.
When I looked at August, I approached the movie schedule with great excitement but also with hesitation. All the films had potential, but they also all had question marks. Week one gave us Total Recall. I'm still not sure why they chose to remake the Arnold Schwarzeneggar classic, but they did, and gave us a solid movie. I'm still not sure Colin Farrell can become a dynamite leading actor (he's much better in a supporting role), but he comes to play in this movie, and it shows.
The next week brought us three totally different movies. The first of which was The Campaign starring Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis. This absolutely hilarious take on the political campaign trail was a fantastic idea, and they couldn't have got a better duo to star.
Hope Springs was next, starring veterans Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones. While having a very adult themed premise, the reason I saw it was for Jones, as he once again shines in everything he does. Streep, as always, delievers, and brings us a fairly good movie.
The highlight of the weekend was The Bourne Legacy. A Jason Bourne themed movie without Matt Damon? I know it's weird, but Jeremy Renner is more than capable of taking over the franchise. I was skeptical going, but I left there feeling that the franchise still has some in the tank.
It's tough to follow that strong of a weekend, but lo and beyond, the next weekend did with another trio of greats. The first was The Expendables 2. I was a huge fan of the first actioneer, and my hopes were high going in, and then, you give Arnold Schwarzeneggar and Bruce Willis more screen time, and add on Chuck Norris, Jean Claude Van-Damme, and Liam Hemsworth to a cast that already included Sylvester Stallone, Jason Statham, and Terry Crews. Let's face it. You couldn't go wrong.
The next was the stop-motion hit, ParaNorman. I told myself that I would only see this movie if the reviews were beyond good. They were, so I checked it out, and it was surprisingly pretty good. With an ending that is heart-warming, ParaNorman was a surprise hit.
The final film was The Odd Life of Timothy Green. Disney can't go wrong in my book, and given this source material, I knew that this was a homerun waiting to happen, and it was. Sweet and filled with endearing performances, Timothy Green gave us our second surprise hit of the weekend.
The next week brought us Premium Rush, starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Michael Shannon. With non-stop action and a strong story, this one gave us a worthy late summer addition to the list.
The final weekend of the year brought us Lawless. If you want to know how I feel about this one, check out my first blog- "Tom Hardy is For Real."
Summer was, as you can see, incredible. The remainder of the movies left this year have an awful lot to live up to. So we bid summer 2012 goodbye, and say hello to the wonder of Oscar season!
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Tom Hardy is For Real!
This past weekend, I took my weekly trip to the movies to see Lawless, the absolutely fantastic story of the Bondurant brothers starring Shia LaBeouf, Tom Hardy, Guy Pearce, Gary Oldman, and Jessica Chastain. The entire cast was perfectly casted, allowing this movie to become one of my favorites of the year. As my friend and I were discussing the movie, however, we both agreed on one thing whole-heartedly: Tom Hardy is a beast! With so many stars in one movie, it's easy for one to get lost occasionally, but sometimes, one rises above the rest, and in Lawless, that one is Hardy. This realization caused two questions to arise in my mind: how good is he and and how good can he be?
My first encounter with Hardy was in Christopher Nolan's masterpiece, Inception. Taking a back seat, obviously, to the great Leonardo DiCaprio, Hardy plays Eames, a dream forger that can change into anyone he desires inside the dream (if you're confused, just go watch Inception). With a cast around him including DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Ellen Page, Hardy steals the scenes his in. Leaving Inception, I began to get the feeling that that guy could be legit one day.
The biggest test, however, to how good an actor truly is is their follow-up film to their breakout role. For me, that follow-up role for Hardy was in 2011's Warrior, where he plays wrestler Tommy Conlon. Described as this genereation's Rocky, Warrior tells the story of two brothers, Hardy and Joel Edgerton playing Brendan Conlon, who are set on a collision course to the title match while also trying to reconnect with their alcoholic father, an Oscar nominated role played by Nick Nolte. These three actors where in top form in this film, giving Hardy his great follow-up he needed.
Where would go after these two? It was time for Hardy to break into a new genre: romantic comedy in the form of This Means War, starring Hardy, Chris Pine, and Reese Witherspoon. While most weren't a huge fan of the film, although I was, it was refreshing to see an actor of Hardy's caliber break the molds that people created for him and try something new.
But no doubt about, Hardy's young career reached a peak in this past summer's blockbuster, The Dark Knight Rises. After Christopher Nolan's unprecedented popular film, The Dark Knight, where Heath Ledger brilliantly portrayed The Joker and set a mile high bar for any villian who dares follow him, the pressure was on to not only make this movie great, but also create a villian for Batman that's worthy to follow Ledger. Nolan chooses Bane, the masked terrorist of Gotham City who would find much delight to see the city destroyed. Nolan calls on Hardy to fill the role, and Hardy more than delievers. I believe that Hardy delievered so much so that his portrayal of Bane should be as praised as much Ledger's Joker. Why not? Both were absolutely despicable and both actors brought a fresh take to a character that we've all seen before. A standard had now been set for Hardy.
The follow-up to a film like The Dark Knight Rises doesn't have to be great, but it's got to be pretty good. Lawless ended up being great with Hardy shining. I don't think it will, but I think this film is more than deserving of the Academy Awards' attention.
Next, we'll see Hardy in Mad Max: Fury Road, bringing back a character that Mel Gibson popularized.
Hardy's career is just getting started. He's only 35 years old, and the sky is not even the limit for him! Before too long, I fully anticipate Hardy's name being called on Oscar Sunday. He's got the charisma of a Tom Cruise. The naturaly ability of a Tom Hanks. And the superstar qualities of a Denzel Washington. The last time I checked, those three are studs! Why can't Hardy do the same. So to answer the questions from earlier:
1) How good is he?
Tom Hardy is legit, my friends. One of the finest actors in the business.
2) How good can he be?
Watch out....we could be looking at Hollywood's next greatest actor....
He is for real.
My first encounter with Hardy was in Christopher Nolan's masterpiece, Inception. Taking a back seat, obviously, to the great Leonardo DiCaprio, Hardy plays Eames, a dream forger that can change into anyone he desires inside the dream (if you're confused, just go watch Inception). With a cast around him including DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Ellen Page, Hardy steals the scenes his in. Leaving Inception, I began to get the feeling that that guy could be legit one day.
The biggest test, however, to how good an actor truly is is their follow-up film to their breakout role. For me, that follow-up role for Hardy was in 2011's Warrior, where he plays wrestler Tommy Conlon. Described as this genereation's Rocky, Warrior tells the story of two brothers, Hardy and Joel Edgerton playing Brendan Conlon, who are set on a collision course to the title match while also trying to reconnect with their alcoholic father, an Oscar nominated role played by Nick Nolte. These three actors where in top form in this film, giving Hardy his great follow-up he needed.
Where would go after these two? It was time for Hardy to break into a new genre: romantic comedy in the form of This Means War, starring Hardy, Chris Pine, and Reese Witherspoon. While most weren't a huge fan of the film, although I was, it was refreshing to see an actor of Hardy's caliber break the molds that people created for him and try something new.
But no doubt about, Hardy's young career reached a peak in this past summer's blockbuster, The Dark Knight Rises. After Christopher Nolan's unprecedented popular film, The Dark Knight, where Heath Ledger brilliantly portrayed The Joker and set a mile high bar for any villian who dares follow him, the pressure was on to not only make this movie great, but also create a villian for Batman that's worthy to follow Ledger. Nolan chooses Bane, the masked terrorist of Gotham City who would find much delight to see the city destroyed. Nolan calls on Hardy to fill the role, and Hardy more than delievers. I believe that Hardy delievered so much so that his portrayal of Bane should be as praised as much Ledger's Joker. Why not? Both were absolutely despicable and both actors brought a fresh take to a character that we've all seen before. A standard had now been set for Hardy.
The follow-up to a film like The Dark Knight Rises doesn't have to be great, but it's got to be pretty good. Lawless ended up being great with Hardy shining. I don't think it will, but I think this film is more than deserving of the Academy Awards' attention.
Next, we'll see Hardy in Mad Max: Fury Road, bringing back a character that Mel Gibson popularized.
Hardy's career is just getting started. He's only 35 years old, and the sky is not even the limit for him! Before too long, I fully anticipate Hardy's name being called on Oscar Sunday. He's got the charisma of a Tom Cruise. The naturaly ability of a Tom Hanks. And the superstar qualities of a Denzel Washington. The last time I checked, those three are studs! Why can't Hardy do the same. So to answer the questions from earlier:
1) How good is he?
Tom Hardy is legit, my friends. One of the finest actors in the business.
2) How good can he be?
Watch out....we could be looking at Hollywood's next greatest actor....
He is for real.
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